Republicans have flipped a plurality-black Arkansas state House district that was seen as reliably Democratic.
“Republicans have flipped AR HD-11, which is a plurality black district along the Mississippi River,” tweeted Chaz Nuttycombe, the director of CNalysis. “We had this seat as Safe D in our ratings.”
Upset alert:
Republicans have flipped AR HD-11, which is a plurality-black district along the Mississippi River. We had this seat as Safe D in our ratings.https://t.co/8dmDmm2fnB pic.twitter.com/wu2827RFCW
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) November 8, 2020
The race was between incumbent Democrat Dan Glover and Republican Mark McElroy. McElroy had served as the district’s representative from 2012-2018 as a Democrat. He left the Democratic Party in 2018, saying he was “too conservative really to be a Democrat” but “too poor to be a Republican.” McElroy cited concerns of the national party’s stance on social issues such as abortion as his main reason for leaving the Democratic Party.
McElroy ran for reelection in 2018 as an independent, losing to Glover but coming in ahead of Republican Ricky Lattimore.
Running as a Republican in 2020, McElroy said it was a mistake not to run under the GOP banner in 2018.
“I made a terrible mistake last time when I decided to run as an independent in a three-way race,” McElroy said in the lead-up to Election Day. “I should have run as a Republican at the time.”
McElroy now describes himself as a “moderate Republican,” while his views have become more aligned with the state’s Republican governor, Asa Hutchinson.
The flipping of a district with a plurality of black voters comes as exit polls show the Republican Party made inroads with minority voters during the 2020 election. President Trump himself was able to improve his share of black voters by 4 points, from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020. He increased his share among Hispanic voters from 28% in 2016 to 32% in 2020, while his performance among Asian Americans improved from 27% to 31%.
Democrats nationwide have been forced to grapple with what has, in part, been a disappointing election. While polls in the lead-up to the election hinted at a potential landslide victory for Democrats, the party has thus far been unable to claim many victories outside of the presidential election.
In the battle for control of state legislatures, which take on more importance in a census year with redistricting looming, Democrats failed to flip a single chamber from Republican control. On the other hand, Republicans were able to flip both of New Hampshire’s legislative chambers from Democratic control.
