ZANESVILLE, Ohio — Republican Troy Balderson leads in the highly scrutinized Ohio 12th Congressional District’s special election over Democrat Danny O’Connor Tuesday night, as President Trump, the Republican National Committee, and the National Republican Congressional Committee all declared victory.
With Balderson ahead 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent with all precincts counted, Republicans were close to a win that would give both the congressional party and the Trump White House some breathing room ahead of the November midterm elections. But O’Connor didn’t concede on Tuesday, clinging to hopes Balderson’s 1,754-vote lead could be erased.
Balderson, a state senator who grew up in this Muskingum County city, fought back against the Democratic insurgent O’Connor, who made this race closer than a safe Republican House seat should look on election night.
The closeness of the race has Democrats and political scientists suggesting the results prove voters are rebuking Trump’s Republican Party by barely holding onto a traditionally safe, suburban, GOP House seat.
“This is a district that is two to one Republican registration, it is fair game for the Democrats to make an argument that it should not be that close, and gives them something to run with,” said Paul Sracic, Youngstown State political science professor.
Republicans see it a different way.
“What it means for Republicans is twofold: On money they can now save $3 million on another seat in November, they don’t have to spend their money here for the re-match,” said David Myhal, an Ohio-based Republican consultant who lives in the district.
“But on messaging, and this is the really important part, it means in what presumably is the worst Republican district in the state for Trump because it was held by John Kasich, even here Trump’s success still matters,” Myhal said.
“He was the number one issue in the Republican primary between the top two vote-getters including Balderson, and he was the number one issue in the special election between Balderson and O’Connor,” he said.
The White House got that, and that is why both President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence came in to campaign for Balderson, holding large rallies and stressing the importance of the race, Myhal said, adding, “Even O’Connor got the Trump influence, by running a campaign ad saying he would work with Trump.”
Both men will face each other again in November.
The district is made up of six counties outside of Muskingum that includes the more heavily populated areas in Franklin, Delaware, and Licking counties. It has not had a competitive House race between a Democrat and Republican in decades. John Kasich, who held the seat in the 1980s and ‘90s, supported Balderson. So did Trump, who visited the district this past Saturday with a rally held in Delaware County, making the contest a rare area of agreement between the two.
House special elections don’t always predict what will happen in November, but there will be plenty of data to comb over to see what messages did and did not work to draw out voters on a hot Tuesday in the beginning of August — in particular the turnout among reluctant suburban Republican Romney-Clinton voters and their Democratic cousins versus the exurban/rural/blue-collar new populist coalition of Obama-Trump voters.
