A tight congressional timeline between now and Election Day could push finalizing the defense bill until after November, which could result in a messy conference as lame duck leaders fight to keep their priorities in what could be their last bill.
The Senate is set to begin consideration of the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act on Monday. Analysts, however, say that doesn’t leave much time to reconcile its version with the House and get a bill signed into law before the Nov. 8 election.
“Just from a timing perspective, there’s not a lot of time to work through the major issues that will likely be in this bill and need to be resolved,” said Justin Johnson, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation. “When you look at the policy debates that will need to be solved, it’s even more likely this will slip until after the election.”
With an August recess and plenty of time in home districts ahead of Election Day, Congress is in Washington for only about 10 weeks before the election, which will put a new president in the White House and could flip control of the Senate or leave some key defense lawmakers out of a job in 2017.
The outcome of the election, Johnson said, could “significantly alter” the conference process and what’s in the final bill that reaches the president’s desk.
One of the biggest factors is whether Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., wins re-election and keeps his chairmanship of the Senate Armed Services Committee, which he would lose if Democrats win control of the Senate.
McCain is facing a primary challenger from Tea Party candidate and Arizona businessman Alex Meluskey. If McCain wins the primary, he could face off in the general election against Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows McCain up over Kirkpatrick by only about two points.
If McCain keeps his seat as leader of the committee, Johnson said he expects the senator could be willing to let some of his more controversial reforms go, knowing that he could continue working on them over the next couple years under a new administration. The Senate committee’s version of the defense policy bill includes some radical changes not in the House bill, including replacing the Pentagon’s top acquisitions chief with two positions, one a newly created leader for innovation. It could also include McCain’s amendment to boost the top line by $18 billion over the president’s request.
But if McCain won’t be coming back to Washington in December, or if he loses the gavel of the Armed Services Committee, Johnson predicted that he’s likely to dig in and not budge on including these reforms, which could drag out the conference process.
“If he’s not coming back or is losing his chairmanship, I think you could see him try to push hard for the biggest, most aggressive bill possible,” Johnson said.
Who wins the White House will also affect how stubborn the president is likely to be on ensuring his priorities are recognized in the bill. Knowing he could punt some issues to a like-minded Democrat could make him more flexible than if a Republican is succeeding him, Johnson said.
“If [Hillary] Clinton is coming in, then [President] Obama might be more willing to pass on some issues to her, for her to handle, like Guantanamo or the budget. If [Donald] Trump is coming in, or someone else, I think the president’s willingness to fight on issues goes up,” he said.
It’s also possible Obama may not even be the one to sign the bill. Analysts acknowledged that the defense policy bill could be signed by the next administration, though Johnson said that would be “novel.”
Mackenzie Eaglen, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute, said signing the bill could be pushed to 2017 if Obama vetoes it.
“The chairs will simply keep the bill largely as is and wait out the new president and try again,” she said.
Still, she said she expected both McCain and Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, will push to pass the bill this year so that a new Congress does not need to rehash these issues.
