CHARLES GIBSON, ABC NEWS: “At the Pentagon today, military officials gave one of the most upbeat assessments of the security situation in Iraq that we have heard since the opening months of the war. Jonathan Karl is at the Pentagon tonight. Jon?” JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS: “Charlie, nobody over here is anywhere near ready to declare victory. But the military statistics tell an unmistakable story. Violence in Iraq is down. And down considerably. “Baghdad’s marketplaces are slowly coming back to life, as violent attacks in Iraq have fallen to less than half of what they were a year ago. Until recently, the trends had been deadly and consistent, violence steadily increasing to an all-time high in June. Since then, however, attacks have fallen four straight months-in every category.” LT. GEN. RAY ODIERNO: “What I’m confident about, is the progress we’re making I think is real.” KARL: “Roadside bombs fell in October to an average of 20 a day. Still high, but the lowest level since October 2004. Iraqi civilian deaths have fallen to a third of where they were a year ago. And after the deadliest summer ever for US forces in Iraq, US combat deaths fell to 29 last month, the lowest level in more than 3 years.” MICHAEL O’HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: “The fact that we’re seeing a durable trend over half a year time period tells us something real is going on. It doesn’t mean, however, that it’s guaranteed to last. …”
There’s more good news in today’s Washington Post and Brian posted a bunch of useful graphs yesterday that are worth a second look. But the real danger now, I think, is that the Coalition becomes a victim of its own success. The left, which has stubbornly refused to recognize the progress being made in Iraq, will now call on American commanders to draw down their forces because, after all, there isn’t so much violence as there used to be. But now that we are finally seeing the kind of sustained, “durable” progress that had eluded U.S. forces over the last four years, the worst thing we could do is undermine that success by hastily reducing force levels in Iraq. The left ranted and raved about Petraeus ‘cooking the books’ in September, but where are they now that it’s become strikingly obvious that the Petraeus strategy has worked, and that violence is on the decline. And will opponents of the war still presume to tell Petraeus how to do his job? Probably, but reasonable people should reward his success by giving him increased latitude in managing the war.
