A Baltimore economist is saying that the long-term outlook for the housing market is “wonderful,” even though the overall market in Maryland currently is coasting by in “neutral.”
“In three to five years, we will have 30,000 to 60,000 people coming to the area” because of the military, said Richard Clinch, a University of Baltimore economist.
“We won?t see the level of appreciation as we have had in the past three years, but there are no downs, just long-term ups,” he said.
Thousands of new residents are expected to pour into the area as a result of the Base Realignment and Closure process that is pumping a large number of military and nonmilitary jobs into Fort Meade and the Aberdeen Proving Ground.
In addition to the bright future for the housing market, Baltimore City could see an influx of homebuyers because of the near build-out of housing sites in the surrounding suburbs, Clinch said.
“We are running out of buildable lots, and the suburbs are getting full,” he said. “Baltimore City has a lot of available housing, and people are being pushed there.”
Deborah Ford, director of UB?s Real Estate and Economic Development undergraduate degree program, said Clinch is “on the right track.”
“What is happening is that if we have all these people moving in, we will need more housing,” Ford said. “At the same time, with the price of gasoline, no one wants to live in the exurbs [those undeveloped areas outside of the suburbs]. The effect will be people moving into the city so they can be closer to work and don?t have to drive as far.” The only thing that could disrupt the growth, she said, is if the military does not offer as many jobs as is expected.
The Department of Defense is estimating 5,400 military, DOD civilian and contractor employees coming to Fort Meade, in addition to 3,000 to 7,000 others who will support military and contractor activities. At the Aberdeen Proving Grounds in Harford County, 5,300 civilian employees are expected. But real estate agent Pat Hiban said it is unlikely there will be a rush on Baltimore?s urban housing market.
In the next few years, Hiban predicted a “big push” into Howard County and Anne Arundel County.
