The presidential campaign will likely have the largest spillover effect in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, based in Omaha.
That’s because only Nebraska and Maine divvy up Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than statewide. So while Nebraska is sure to back President Trump, as it has with every Republican nominee from 1968 onward, his Democratic rival Joe Biden has a real shot at winning the congressional district. And that’s already proving to be a benefit for the campaign of Democratic House candidate Kara Eastman.
She’s challenging Republican Rep. Don Bacon, having lost to him 51%-49% in 2018. Eastman is running as an unapologetic liberal in a district that encompasses the core of the Omaha-Council Bluffs metro area. The district stands in stark contrast to the rest of agriculture-heavy Nebraska, as it’s 98% urban.
Therein lies the appeal for the Biden campaign. The presidential campaign of the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator has been advertising heavily in the district. And the tactic has worked before. The 2008 Democratic ticket, with Biden as the understudy to Democratic nominee Barack Obama, picked off the electoral vote, marking the first time a state split an electoral vote since Nebraska and Maine adopted the system in the 1970s.
Biden leads Trump in the district 48%-41%, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. The survey also found Bacon leading Eastman 45%-43%.
Bacon’s narrow lead is a testament to the enduring Republican lean in the district, if by a much narrower margin than the rest of Nebraska, which in 2016 backed Trump over Hillary Clinton statewide 59%-34%.
Bacon, before turning to politics, was a career Air Force officer, rising to brigadier general and wing commander at Ramstein Air Base, in Germany, and Offutt Air Force Base, in Nebraska.