ORLANDO, Fla. — Businessman Herman Cain’s upset victory in Florida’s Republican presidential straw poll sent a strong message that, less than 14 months from Election Day, GOP voters are unhappy with their party’s choices and may be open to others entering the race.
Cain, who has never held public office, easily defeated the race’s top contenders — three-term Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — in the Florida straw poll, whose winner has historically gone on to win the party’s nomination.
The upset victory is fueling speculation that someone more formidable could enter the race. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is among those being pressed to reconsider a run he has already decided against.
“I think there’s a huge disappointment in the choices,” Florida GOP strategist April Schiff told The Washington Examiner. “There’s a frustration that we really need someone that is a stellar rock star and there isn’t one.”
Romney, the original front-runner who is making his second bid for president, has been hurt by his support for a Massachusetts health care law that is similar to the national health care law Republicans are trying to repeal. He’s also been accused of waffling on key conservative issues like abortion.
Perry, who surged to the top of the polls when he entered the race in August, has lost some support following weak performances in recent debates and his support for giving illegal immigrants in-state tuition rates at Texas colleges.
“This should give Perry reason to think about what he needs to do to deal with some of blemishes he has now,” said University of Florida political science professor Stephen Craig.
For Cain, the Florida victory could give him a bump in the polls and an infusion of campaign cash. Though many party leaders still don’t accept him as a credible candidate, delegates who picked him Saturday and cheered his impassioned speeches told The Examiner they feel confident that he can beat President Obama.
If history is any indicator, they could be right.
The Florida straw poll, though it includes only a fraction of the state’s voters, has a history of accurately picking the candidate who goes on to win the nomination and, in some cases, the presidency.
The poll dates back to 1979, when delegates picked Ronald Reagan, who won the White House the following year. In 1987, the straw poll chose another president when it picked George H.W. Bush and it correctly picked the 1996 GOP presidential nominee, Sen. Bob Dole.
“Every candidate who has won this thing has gone on to be the nominee,” Schiff noted. “So if that is the case, then this will be an interesting campaign.”
Cain, who has a new campaign book being published in coming weeks, told The Examiner that the Florida straw poll is a reliable indicator of a candidate’s potential success because the party’s most active members chose the winner.
“It’s very important because it sends a message,” Cain said. “These are actual delegates voting, not people who get bused in for an event, like they did in Iowa.”
