Gary Black is dashing to fill a void in the Georgia Senate race created by Herschel Walker, but Republican insiders are split on his viability versus Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.
The 63-year-old Georgia agriculture commissioner unveiled endorsements from 60 sheriffs as he dared an undecided Walker, former President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, to jump into the 2022 Republican Senate primary. A proven statewide vote-getter, Black is appealing to the Democratic-trending Atlanta suburbs with promises to crack down on rising crime and marketing his candidacy as the perfect combination of electability with the message: “Sometimes the nice guy and the tough guy are the same guy.”
“The tortoise always beats the hare when the hare sits on the sidelines,” said a Republican operative in Georgia who, like many party insiders, requested anonymity to discuss their skepticism of Walker. Trump is encouraging the 59-year-old former professional football player and star athlete at the University of Georgia to run for Senate, a move that has discouraged top Republicans reticent to cross the former president from mounting a campaign.
Reached by telephone Wednesday, Walker declined to reveal his plans or offer a timeline for publicizing a decision but indicated he is giving a Senate bid, and all that it entails, genuine consideration. “I do take this Senate decision very seriously, and I don’t think people realize that,” he told the Washington Examiner.
Black, a senior at the University of Georgia when Walker was a freshman, is in his third term as the statewide elected agriculture commissioner.
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He is from northern Georgia, which is rich with GOP primary voters; is well-liked in southern Georgia, another key source of support for Republican candidates, and is tight with the agriculture industry, a major driver of the state’s economy. In his position, Black is responsible for regulating energy pipelines and gas pumps. And his political and fundraising network is solid, with tentacles throughout the state, helping him raise $700,000 during the first three weeks of his campaign.
“Black has a large following in the state — especially rural Georgia,” a second Republican operative in the state added. “Walker’s numbers are good right now. But this race will be a runoff between Black and Walker. With Walker’s past, Black, who is squeaky clean, can be the guy that won’t embarrass the GOP.”
But Black has plenty of detractors who are convinced more formidable Republicans will run for Senate if Walker demurs — among them former Sen. David Perdue, who was ousted in a Jan. 5 runoff by now-Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat. Perdue, 71, announced in February he would not run for Senate in the midterm elections. But Republican donors, activists, and officials in Georgia and Washington are encouraging Perdue to reconsider, and some believe he is doing so.
Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the Republican defeated by Warnock in the other Jan. 5 runoff, also is known to be interested in a rematch with Warnock.
So, what’s wrong with Black?
Some Republicans question his ability to compete with the charismatic Warnock. Although he is only four years older than Walker, the knock on Black is that he looks old and is too much of an insider in an era when voters tend to reward fresh-faced political outsiders over career insiders. To wit, some Republicans question Black’s ability to generate enthusiasm among a Republican base that takes its cues from Trump.
These Republicans doubt Black could beat Walker in a primary.
The Black campaign dismissed the naysayers. A spokesman emphasized Black has never been at odds with Trump, serving on the 45th president’s agriculture advisory panel during his first campaign for the White House in 2016. Team Black argued its candidate is best positioned to help the Republican Party reclaim lost ground with suburban women in a state President Joe Biden won narrowly last November. Trump was the first Republican nominee to lose Georgia since 1992.
“Georgia is only purple when we bruise ourselves up as Republicans,” Black campaign spokesman Dan McLagan said. “This is a totally winnable race with someone like Gary Black.”
Meanwhile, Republicans have mixed feelings on Walker, with some seeing tremendous upside and others worrying his background would be an anchor in the general election in a contest that could decide the Senate majority.
On the positive side, Walker is a folk hero in Georgia, has a magnetic personality, is a wealthy businessman, and is heavily involved in charitable ventures. Because he is black, some Republicans believe he could cut into the Democratic Party’s advantage with black voters in liberal urban strongholds, boosting GOP prospects against Warnock, a black pastor who enjoyed a large following even before he ran for Senate.
And of course, as Trump’s anointed challenger, Walker would presumably enjoy the strong support of a Republican base that did not turn out in force for the Jan. 5 runoffs because the outgoing president complained that the voting system in Georgia could not be trusted to deliver a fair result. Of concern is Walker’s past personal challenges, of which he has written extensively but may not be widely known. Additionally, there are questions about his residency.
Walker for years has lived in Texas.
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He voted in Texas last November (although there is no record of him voting at all during the preceding nearly two decades). If Walker runs, he is going to have to move back to Georgia full-time and file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission that could create more fodder for his opponents. Some Republicans worry these and other possible revelations could cast doubt about his viability in the eyes of Georgia voters.
