The Hillary Clinton campaign has benefited greatly from the perception that her nomination is inevitable. The DNC has done its best to favor her, with a debate schedule that leaves few opportunities for insurgent candidacies to be heard, to say nothing of how they have even unfairly punished the Sanders campaign.
Despite this, things for the Sanders campaign are suddenly looking very encouraging. Sanders is up four points in the Real Clear Politics polling average in New Hampshire. But as my colleague Michael Warren reports, the latest Monmouth poll shows Sanders opening up a huge 14 point lead in New Hampshire. The latest ARG poll in Iowa has Sanders up three points. And a Quinnipiac poll out today has Sanders up five points in Iowa. Clinton is still up 5 points in the RCP polling average in Iowa (which doesn’t yet include the Quinnipiac poll), but momentum does not appear to be going her way in the Hawkeye state. Here’s a report from today’s New York Times:
Nationally, today’s IBD/TIPP poll shows Hillary Clinton’s support has slipped eight points. She now holds just a four point lead over Sanders. Considering the poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, her lead is close to nothing. The IBD/TIPP poll is something of an outlier compared to other recent national polls, but considering how recent it is and indications of a momentum shift in Iowa, I wouldn’t be quick to discount it.
Also, on Tuesday, Sanders was endorsed by MoveOn.org, the hugely influential progressive grassroots group.
But perhaps the biggest signs she might be in trouble are coming from the White House. Yesterday, the White House announced that Obama had met privately with Sanders. And yesterday, Joe Biden rhetorically firebombed the Clinton campaign:
Does the White House know something we don’t? Are they looking at internal polls that spell doom for Hillary? Or do they just not like her? Either way, it’s hard not to see this as the White House sending out a pretty strong signal.
