Analysts are downgrading their forecasts for GOP gains. Republicans are suddenly struggling with cash shortages. And the party’s own Senate leader is warning publicly about the falling likelihood that Republicans win a majority in the upper chamber this November.
The mood has shifted among Republicans over the past several weeks, from a sense of unbridled optimism to one of sober reflection about their chances for victory.
What seemed like a foregone conclusion as recently as earlier this month, when Republicans registered a 5-point advantage in the generic ballot, which measures voters’ general preference for one party over the other, in two successive polls, is more of an open question today.
“One can never underestimate Republicans’ unique talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,” said Ned Ryun, founder and CEO of the conservative group American Majority, who called the narrative that Democrats’ fortunes are rising “overhyped.”
GOP’S SENATE HOPES ENDANGERED AS INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LAG IN POLLS
“There are 11 weeks to go until Election Day, and if Republicans will buckle down and hammer on the issues of inflation, crime, and immigration, I’ve every reason to still believe they’ll pick up dozens of seats in the House, take the Senate, and win some key gubernatorial races as well as make significant gains at the state legislative level,” Ryun told the Washington Examiner.
Fox News Power Rankings, a data analysis project of the network, reduced the outlook this week for GOP gains in the House.
The new projections still put Republicans in the House majority — but only by two to 30 seats, fewer than previously predicted.
The RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot shows the Republican advantage slipping to 0.2 points, indicating a virtual tie.
FiveThirtyEight, a data analysis website, earlier this month reported “modest but consistent movement toward Democrats” in a forecast of which party is more likely to control the Senate after November.
Republicans got more bad news this week when Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in the special election to fill a New York congressional district that President Joe Biden had carried by less than 2 points in 2020.
Analysts had watched the contest closely for clues about the Democrats’ midterm prospects given how heavily the race had centered on abortion. Even though former Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY), the last incumbent to hold the seat, won the district by nearly 12 points in 2020, polls had shown the race to be close enough to suggest it could serve as a test of the Democrats’ approach to the issue.
Nonetheless, many Republican operatives remain upbeat about the party’s chances.
“The bed-wetting caucus is alive and well,” Jeff Roe, veteran GOP strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “But as the haze and heat of August dissipates and the 5-1 Democrat spending advantage deteriorates, a Republican advantage will reappear in the fall, along with a real opportunity for a Republican Senate majority.”
Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, said the backdrop heading into the midterm elections remains unfriendly for Democrats despite the recent projections.
“When you put it in historical perspective, this is shaping up to be another wave election,” Bolger told the Washington Examiner. “Upset voters don’t discriminate. Whoever’s in power, that’s who they want to punish.”
Bolger pointed to polls that continue to reflect a dissatisfied electorate: Voters are dissatisfied with their personal financial situations, overwhelmingly believe the country is on the “wrong track,” and continue to give Biden low marks, particularly on the economy.
“All that stuff, they’re all connected, and they add up to the same thing. There may be fluctuations from month to month or week to week in the polls, like the generic ballot, for instance,” he said. “But you step back and look, and you say: ‘Wow, that’s an oncoming train, and it’s going to run over the party in power.’”
Even so, several factors helpful to Democrats have contributed to changing perceptions of the midterm elections in recent weeks.
Democrats broke a yearlong legislative logjam and passed a version of the climate and spending bill they’d long promised voters.
Negative attitudes about the Supreme Court’s abortion decision have hardened now that the dust has settled from the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion release in June. Voters in red Kansas rejected a ballot measure earlier this month that would have paved the way for the state to tighten restrictions on abortion, fueling anxiety on the Right that support for abortion access could cut across party lines.
And a spate of recent polls from battleground states has shown Democratic candidates performing surprisingly well against their Republican rivals.
But GOP strategist Alex Conant said Republicans should fare well if they capitalize on the Democrats’ weak points.
“There’s no reason that Republicans shouldn’t have big wins in November. The soft economy, unpopular president, and historical trends all favor the GOP,” he told the Washington Examiner. “But it’s incumbent on Republican candidates to take advantage of the opportunity and run effective campaigns.”
Some Republican fears about the future, particularly about the party’s Senate prospects, have focused on a handful of campaigns that insiders say aren’t running effectively.
Republican candidate Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, for example, has struggled against an effort by his Democratic opponent to paint him as an out-of-touch New Jerseyite.
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Pennsylvania Senate race last week, moving it out of the “toss-up” category into the “leans Democrat” category, which means Democratic candidate John Fetterman is now seen as having a slight advantage.
A poll this week showed Fetterman leading Oz by 5 points.
Despite the football fame he brought to the Georgia Senate race, Republican candidate Herschel Walker is trailing Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in most recent polls.
Warnock so far appears poised to outperform Biden with Georgia voters, confirming GOP fears that Democrats in key races will find a way to wriggle out of the constraints Biden’s unpopularity could place on them.
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Historical headwinds affect Senate races less dramatically because those statewide candidates tend to be more recognizable to voters, said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist.
“The headwinds matter a lot more in House races than they do in Senate races,” Bannon told the Washington Examiner. “In House races, voters don’t know very much about their incumbent member of the House or their challengers, so they vote based on whether they’re in a good mood or a bad mood. And they’re in a bad mood.”
Republicans still have many reasons to believe they can at least retake the House.
The party in control of the White House almost always loses seats in midterm elections and tends to lose a significant number when the president’s approval ratings dip as low as Biden’s have.
“No. 1 is the economy,” Bolger said of the reasons Republicans are likely to notch gains in November. “No. 2 is the concern that the president can’t do the job. And No. 3 is that the Democrats — all they’re doing is literally shoveling cash on the raging fire of inflation.”
