Despite the unpredictability of the presidential race, many Republicans running for re-election to the Senate are in a decent position.
While Donald Trump has been up and down in many swing state polls, many embattled GOP incumbents are running well ahead of the real estate mogul and more importantly their Democratic opponents, putting them in a good spot with less than four months until election day.
Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, the foursome that could hold the keys to the majority, are all leading their Democratic challengers and running well ahead of Trump in their states, according to the latest RealClearPolitics averages. On top of that, candidates who are leading Democratic opponents solidly in purple states (Chuck Grassley, Richard Burr) are also outpacing Trump by noticeable margins.
“A lot of what they’ve done is campaign around him, and to talk about very local issues that won’t be affected by the presidential campaign, or then in some cases, the very large national issues,” said Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and former RNC communications director, noting Burr’s work on national security as an example. “The fact that they [have to go around him] still remains a challenge, and is still something they need to contend with and what the Democrats will continue to use against them.”
Despite privately recognizing the problems Trump presents for these contests, many Republicans are quick to point out that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is also problematic for Democratic Senate challengers. Specifically, they note her unfavorable rating in many of these states, where Trump is competitive despite his low favorable ratings.
“Whatever you think of Trump, Hillary Clinton is as popular as a skunk at a garden party,” said Ryan Williams, a former aide to Mitt Romney and an adviser for the New Hampshire GOP. “She doesn’t have any coattails for Democrats to ride. She’s winning in some states, but our senators are also holding their own because she’s just not a popular political figure with down ballot pull.”
In a new Quinnpiac poll released earlier Thursday, Rubio, Portman and Toomey all lead in their contests by at least seven points. This is important for the GOP, as the map expanded for Democrats early this week when former Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh tossed his hat into the ring to face off with Rep. Todd Young for a GOP-held seat.
Four years ago, the script was flipped as Mitt Romney ran well ahead of GOP insurgents who were trying to take down Democratic incumbents, including Indiana’s Richard Mourdock and Missouri’s Todd Akin, both of whom lost after making abortion-related gaffes.
Many of the campaigns have tried to keep their race focused on local issues while minimizing national issues, with Rubio and Portman serving as prime examples. Since announcing his bid for re-election less than a month ago, Rubio has been an outspoken advocate for more funding to combat the Zika virus, while Portman has made the opioid crisis in Ohio a cornerstone of his campaign, having released multiple ads promoting his work on the issue.
Some continue worry about Trump’s campaign operation and his ability to turn a news cycle upside down, however.
“This is the most unconventional election in recent history. No one knows what to expect going into the fall,” Williams said. “But to be where they are right now is ahead of where many thought our senators would be, and it’s a positive sign.”
