Polling guru Nate Silver tore into the Associated Press after the news outlet retracted its call that Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., won re-election.
Newly counted ballots put Valadao behind Democrat TJ Cox by 438 votes Monday, but Silver argued it has long been clear that Cox was likely going to win the race.
“Running a little behind here but Cox (D) has pulled ahead in CA-[21] and we’ve moved from Lean D to Likely D. Pretty bad that AP and others treated this as a called race for Valadao (R) until just now when it’s been clear for 2 weeks that Cox could win,” the FiveThirtyEight editor in chief tweeted.
“Y’all should have retracted your call 2 weeks ago. No credit for it now. This is a case where ass-covering took precedent over journalistic accuracy,” Silver added.
Y’all should have retracted your call 2 weeks ago. No credit for it now. This is a case where ass-covering took precedent over journalistic accuracy. https://t.co/fuxUqfbacs
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 27, 2018
AP said in a tweet Monday evening that it was retracting it’s call from nearly three weeks ago.
“The AP is retracting its call in the race for California’s 21st Congressional District. The AP had declared Republican David Valadao the winner. However, Democrat T.J. Cox has taken the lead in the vote count. No new call will be made until the results are certified,” the outlet explained.
California’s deadline for county election officials to certify ballot results is Dec. 7.
Cox trailed by more than 4,000 votes on Election Night, but has since flipped the script on Valadao. Thousands of ballots have yet to be counted, but prognosticators including Silver don’t believe Valadao will regain the lead.
“Not a done deal yet, but Dems now on track for a *40 seat* House pickup. That was almost unthinkable on Election Night,” Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Monday evening.
While several outlets call election contests, sometimes as soon as polls close and before most of the ballots are counted, AP is widely seen as the standard for calling races due to its methodical process, which includes the step of “Double check, and check again.”
“Having an experienced elections team that knows what to look for is essential. Instead of relying on crowd-sourcing or vulnerable technology, our 50-state network of local reporters have first-hand knowledge of their territories and trusted relationships with county clerks and other local officials,” AP explains on its website.
“On election night, race callers in each state are armed with a wealth of additional detailed information from our election research team, including demographics, the number of absentee ballots, and political issues that may affect the outcome of races they must call,” AP says. “Race callers are also assisted by experts in our Washington bureau. A ‘decision desk’ in Washington, headed by the Washington bureau chief, has the final signoff on all top-of-the-ticket calls.”
AP wasn’t alone in retracting its call for the contest in California’s 21st Congressional District. NBC News’ “Decision Desk” also retracted it’s previous call of Valadao winning.
