A retiring GOP lawmaker warned Sunday that House Republicans may face “troubled waters” and find it “hard to govern” after the November midterm elections if his party takes back the majority with fewer than 230 seats.
Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, one of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, made the comments on NBC’s Meet the Press after being asked how he thought the next wave of GOP leadership could govern. Asked specifically whether he thought a Republican-led House would allow the federal government to default on its debt, the retiring congressman said that “a lot depends” on the margin by which his party retakes the body.
“What is going to be the margin, though? Is it going to be better than Pelosi? I think it will [be] a little bit better than what it is today for her. But I don’t think it’s going to be this wild swing, knowing that we picked up a lot of seats in the last election despite Biden winning. So, you know, what’s the over-under?” he said to host Chuck Todd. “That’s going to make a big determination.”
After offering some praise of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy for encouraging GOP candidates to run on certain issues, Upton discussed hurdles the top-ranking Republican could face in managing a slimmer majority.
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Asked if McCarthy, a California Republican, could represent a centrist like himself as well as firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, Upton replied, “He can if he gets the margin. That’s why this over-under number is so important. Are we going to be over or under 230?”
“You think he may not become speaker if it’s under 230?” Todd asked the outgoing lawmaker.
“It will be very hard to govern for Republicans if we’re under 230 knowing that we’ve got the MTG element that’s really not a part of a governing majority,” Upton said.
Upton, who had publicized the death threats he received following his vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill late last year, announced his retirement earlier this month. He had held the seat since 1987. While Upton and Greene do not appear to agree on much, they both have acknowledged that McCarthy faces obstacles in his path to the speakership.
“We know that Kevin McCarthy has a problem in our conference. He doesn’t have the full support to be speaker,” Greene said while appearing on Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz’s podcast last November.
“He doesn’t have the votes that are there because there’s many of us that are very unhappy about the failure to hold Republicans accountable, while conservatives like me, Paul Gosar, and many others just constantly take the abuse by the Democrats,” she continued. “The American people aren’t going to have it.”
The House has 435 voting members, as well as five delegates who serve as nonvoting members. A party needs 218 votes to gain control of the lower chamber of Congress. Democrats have 221, while Republicans have 209. There were also five vacancies this cycle, four of which were GOP-held seats.
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Republicans are widely favored to retake the House this November, but by how much is unclear.
Asked during a Fox News Sunday appearance about the likelihood of him becoming House speaker if the GOP took back the House, McCarthy played coy, saying that he saw an “opportunity” for his party to succeed this fall: “The first and foremost responsibility is to take that House back. But we’ll be prepared to govern.”
Pressed further on the matter, specifically if he saw any legitimate challenges to his leadership status, the California Republican replied, “At this time, no. I’ve never seen our party more united. We’re not focused on individuals. We’re focused on the country first and the policies.”
