Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is nothing if not a campaign veteran. He’s run and won three statewide races since 2010, including the highly contentious recall election in 2012. In fact, since an unsuccessful bid for the state assembly in 1990 when he was just 22, Walker hasn’t lost an election. That’s a great record to have going into a campaign for president, but just a month into his official candidacy, Walker is suffering from a perception that he’s already losing.
Stalling poll numbers and a threat to his top position in Iowa—where Donald Trump has overtaken him in a few polls there—have fed this narrative. In the national polls, Walker has been falling since his peak on April 1. According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Walker had a boost in support following his July 13 announcement that he was officially running for president, but since August he’s suffered a precipitous drop in support. Nor did the August 6 debate boost his position. In the latest CNN national poll, Walker is tied for fourth place with Marco Rubio at 8 percent, behind Ben Carson at 9 percent, Jeb Bush at 13 percent, and Donald Trump at 24 percent.
The media have taken note. Here’s a sample of some recent headlines: “Scott Walker struggles for the Iowa prize”; “Scott Walker slides as Trump rises”; “Walker chasing Trump, deepens his problem.”
But the campaign is pushing back, telling THE WEEKLY STANDARD that Walker is simply entering the “next phase,” which will involve reasserting both his record as governor as well as his vision for the future. The emphasis now, Walker sources say, is on laying the groundwork for long-term success rather than chasing after the top spot in Iowa 15 months before the first caucuses.
And, perhaps, an emphasis on calming its supporters. A Wednesday report in the Washington Post describes the campaign informing its donors that it is “shifting to a more aggressive posture and will seek to tap into the anti-establishment fervor fueling the rise of Donald Trump and other outsider candidates.” This message, the Post notes, was meant to “reassure jittery donors” about the drop in the polls. But campaign sources tell TWS that Walker has always fashioned himself as an outsider; in his announcement speech last month, he called for “leadership with big, bold ideas from outside of Washington,” for instance.
Part of that new shift, they say, is putting forth more details about those “big, bold ideas,” starting with a speech Tuesday where Walker laid out his replacement plan for Obamacare. The plan has won plaudits from conservatives, including TWS editor Bill Kristol. The editorial board at the Wall Street Journal called Walker’s proposal “realistic and promising reform.” Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner says the plan prioritizes “pragmatism over purity” while Yuval Levin at National Review called it “the most substantively and politically serious conservative health care reform we have yet seen from a presidential candidate.”
The campaign says to expect more focus on policy, including education, in the coming weeks. But beyond that, they say, Walker has been building a national base of support in states beyond those holding the first primary contests like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Indeed, since his announcement, Walker has made campaign stops in 12 different states, including Nevada (February 23 caucus), Georgia and Tennessee (March 1 primaries), and Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri (March 15 primaries).
The campaign also notes the strength of its organization, including 65 members of its Iowa leadership team and a presence in South Carolina and Nevada. In other states, Walker has support from some high-profile Republicans in Virginia and Minnesota. And outside of Iowa, Georgia appears to be where Walker has the strongest organizational presence. His campaign chair there is U.S. congressman Doug Collins, joined by five other co-chairs drawn from leaders in the state assembly and conservative activist circles. But Georgia, says one political consultant familiar with the state’s politics, is currently split between the establishment favorite of Jeb Bush and the conservative and evangelical base for Ted Cruz. Walker will need positive momentum from a win in, say, Iowa and/or South Carolina going into March’s “SEC primary” to complete what he’s started building in the Peach State.
Fundraising doesn’t appear to be a problem for Walker, at least not yet. Last month the presidential campaign and the super PAC supporting it reported having raised a combined $32 million since the start of 2015, putting the operation not far behind those of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and ahead of most other Republican candidates except Jeb Bush. Walker benefits from the national donor network he cultivated during his 2012 recall battle, for which there were no limitations or caps on donations.
All of this, the campaign says, is a part of the Walker’s “calm and steady” approach to his campaign: build out the infrastructure, establish detailed policy positions, and win over conservative voters with his “Middle America, common man, blue-collar” appeal. The strategy depends on forces like Donald Trump and Ben Carson being a “flavor of the month” in Iowa, which one veteran Republican strategist, unaffiliated with any campaign, says is likely.
“He still will be the president of Iowa,” he predicts.
The question remains whether Walker’s “groundwork” will carry him past the caucuses.
