Whichever way you look, white Catholics have called it. They’ve been picking winning presidents since Nixon. And overall, American Catholics’ growing diversity projects the nation’s demographic future. Today, one third of American Catholics are Latino, and two thirds of Catholics under the age of 18 are Latino.
Prognosticators agree the bellwether bloc remains a good bet in the final stretch. As Public Religion Research Institute CEO Robert Jones pointed out, white Catholics account for 30 percent of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters—and about a quarter in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, and Florida. And, until John McCain and Mitt Romney’s losses, white Catholics picked the winner in every presidential race from Nixon’s first win onward.
And, based on recent polling, the Catholic choice in 2016 is clear. “Support for Donald Trump is lower among [white, weekly churchgoing] Catholics than support for Romney, McCain or Bush, and Latino Catholics are supporting Secretary Clinton in numbers significantly higher than went for Democrats in these past elections,” Stephen F. Schneck, Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Catholic Studies and Associate Professor of Politics at Catholic University, told reporters at the National Press Club Monday morning. White Catholics who attend mass less often—a swing-voting bloc historically—lean further Democratic this year. “Secretary Clinton,” Schneck concludes, “is likely to win support from voters who are Catholic.”
The acknowledged Catholic bellwether notwithstanding, no party platform aligns perfectly with a prototypical Catholics’ political priorities. A 61 percent majority of Americans agree today that neither political party represents their views anymore, and “60 percent of white Catholics and 52 percent of Latino Catholics agree with that statement,” Jones pointed out, citing PRRI’s American Values survey, published last week.
The Catholic constituency remains a solid indicator of the country’s direction so long as we factor in the partisan push and pull, and the widening age gap, between white Catholics and Latino Catholics. Latinos make up 42 percent of American Catholics, and 71 percent of them are under the age of 50. In 2012, Jones pointed out, Obama won 50 percent of all Catholics and Romney 48—a fairly even split. But Romney won white Catholics by 19 points, and lost Latino Catholics by an even more dramatic 54.
This year looks a little different. Catholics favor Clinton across the board: white Catholics by four points, and Latino Catholics by more than 60. Latino Catholics so far support Hillary Clinton by a wider margin than they have any Democrat in the last three elections. The bellwether tolls for her, apparently.
