Donald Trump swept primaries in all five states Tuesday, netting the Republican front-runner 105 delegates and sending his total haul to 950 out of 1,237 needed to clinch the presidential nomination.
Races in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island were called for Trump soon after the polls closed. The New York businessman’s commanding victories brought him around 65 delegates for winning statewide in each state, and another approximately 40 delegates for winning in most congressional districts, which awarded about three delegates each.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, running second behind Trump in most of the states contested Tuesday, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who is second in the overall delegate hunt, performed miserably, picking up five delegates and one delegate, respectively.
The breadth of Trump’s sweep was significant, putting him in a better position to avoid a contested convention and wrapping up the 2016 nomination by the end of the primary season in June. Heading into the crucial Indiana primary on May 3, the delegate race looks like this: Trump, 950; Cruz, 560; and Kasich, 153.
“A good day for Trump is winning all five states. A very good day for him is to score at least 90 delegates,” said Bill Whalen, a political analyst and research fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution think tank in California, before the votes came in. “It’s not just the number of delegates he receives, but how he did, in particular, in swing districts.”
And that’s exactly what Trump did.
He came close to pitching a shutout, nearly blanking Kasich in congressional districts in Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania that are home to moderate Republicans and were expected to be competitive. The results, especially in Pennsylvania, where Trump appears to have the support of as many as two thirds of the state’s 54 unbound delegates, mean that the “#NeverTrump” forces are going to have a tougher time derailing the billioniare populist in an open convention, if they manage to force a floor fight.
“The rules in the five contests are set up nicely for a front-runner,” said Josh Putnam, a political science lecturer at the University of Georgia and an expert on delegate rules, which he writes about on his blog, FHQ. “Trump is well-positioned to take around 100 of the 118 bound delegates at stake in the five contests.”
Pennsylvania was the big prize, and Trump overperformed the public opinion polls there.
The state Republican Party’s unusual rules for doling out convention delegates means Trump’s win was worth only 17 guaranteed votes on first ballot in Cleveland. Of Pennsylvania’s 71 GOP delegates, 54 are on Tuesday’s primary ballot and chosen by the voters — just like any other candidate for office.
The winners are automatically unbound and free to vote for whomever they choose to at the July nominating convention. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won the popular vote in the GOP primary, but the delegates supported Ronald Reagan at the convention.
But Trump’s delegate slate appears to have been successful, and combined with delegate candidates who pledged to support whichever candidate won in their district, his haul from the state could be fairly substantial.
Charlie Gerow, a veteran Republican operative in Pennsylvania and candidate for delegate, said whether his state’s convention delegation functions as largely unbound or pledged depends on who gets elected. Gerow is running in the 4th congressional district, covering south-central Pennsylvania.
Gerow has been a delegate before, and is running as uncommitted. But he conceded that he has seen anecdotal evidence that suggests the delegates elected on Tuesday could be friendly to Trump at the convention, even though their pledges are unenforceable and they could flip to another candidate.
“The Trump people are coming into the polls with their card in hand,” Gerow said, referring to voters with cards listing which delegate candidates are being recommended by the Trump campaign. “That would suggest a Trump lockdown more than you thought.”
Delegate Cheat Sheet
Connecticut
Total delegates: 28
Awarded statewide: 10
Awarded per congressional district: 15
Binding rules at convention: First ballot
Delaware
Total delegates: 16
Awarded statewide: 16
Bindng rules at convention: First ballot
Maryland
Total delegates: 38
Awarded statewwide: 14
Awarded per congressional district: 24
Binding rules at convention: Second ballot
Pennsylvania
Total delegates: 71
Awarded statewide: 17
Directly elected by voters: 54
Binding rules at convention: 54 directly elected are automatically unbound on first ballot; 17 awarded statewide bound to statewid winner of first ballot
Rhode Island
Total delegates: 19
Awarded proportionally according to finish in the statewide vote: 13 (must garner 10 percent of the vote)
Awarded proportionally, according to finish in each congressional district: 6 (must garner 10 percent of the vote in each district)
If the winner in statewide or in a district garners more than 67 percent, his proportional delegate haul increases.
Binding rules at convention: First ballot
