New Jersey voters could witness a real slugfest this November in the state’s gubernatorial election. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Corzine is facing stiff competition from Republican Chris Christie, according to a new Rasmussen poll released last week. Looking behind the numbers suggests the incumbent governor has some reason for fear – and hope. Christie currently leads his main competitor in the June 2 GOP primary, Steve Lonegan, by just under 10 points. In a low-turnout primary, the outcome is not guaranteed. Yet right now, Christie looks like the favorite. Assuming he wins, Ramussen’s poll suggests he would do well in the general election too. He leads Corzine right now by nine points – 47 percent-38 percent. A few details in the crosstabs suggest Corzine is in a deep hole among certain key electoral constituencies. In addition to his nine-point overall deficit, the incumbent governor trails among women by 12 points, independents by 33 points, and moderates by 21 points. For his part, Christie also performs well among the Republican base, leading Corzine 76 percent – 12 percent among self-identified conservatives. So where can the incumbent find some sunshine in these gloomy numbers? New Jersey is still a strong Democratic state. Despite Corzine’s high unfavorable rating (Rasmussen pegs it at around 53 percent), New Jersey voters say they “prefer a Democratic governor” compared to a Republican by 48 percent-34 percent. Political observers know New Jersey usually ends up disappointing Republicans at the end of the day. Rasmussen agrees:
But GOP operatives hope Governor Corzine’s budget troubles and unpopularity – along with a strong candidate in Christie – mean 2009 becomes the exception to years of dashed hopes. Read the full Rasmussen poll here.
