In one of the few congressional districts where Republicans have a serious opportunity to pick up a House seat from the Democrats, the prospects for Minnesota GOP challenger Stewart Mills are looking even better than an appraisal made in The WEEKLY STANDARD six weeks ago.
A poll from KSTP/Survey USA released in late October—the only major public poll of the race to date—has Mills running four points ahead of Democrat (DFL) incumbent Rick Nolan in Minnesota’s northeastern Eighth Congressional District at 45 to 41 percent. (A poll done for the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC earlier in the month showed Nolan up eight.)
A similar poll between the same two men in 2014 had Mills eight points ahead before the election, but Nolan ultimately won the race by a narrow one-percent margin. The challenger, however, has many advantages this time around. Most importantly, Nolan benefited in 2014 from the coattails of the top of the Democratic ticket, which handily won the governorship and a Senate seat in the statewide voting.
This time, the top of the DFL ticket features Hillary Clinton—who, even before the FBI announced it was reopening its investigation of her, trailed Donald Trump in this district by a clear margin. In the Survey USA poll, Trump led Clinton among likely voters in the Eighth with a solid 47 to 35 percent advantage. Now an experienced campaigner, Mills has run a strong, savvy effort in his second try, silencing most of his opponent’s criticism about inexperience. In 2014, he ran with his trademark long hair. Those locks now shorn, he has campaigned tirelessly throughout the district.
Nolan has the advantage of not having a Green party candidate on the ticket, as he did in 2014. But it remains to be seen how many of these environmentalists will bring themselves to vote for Nolan only two years later. The incumbent also has a traditionally strong get-out-the-vote organization behind him, but the FBI’s investigation of Clinton might act as a damper on turnout this time. And Mills, unlike in 2014, has a district-wide get-out-the-vote effort of his own.
