British: More nukes needed as power shifts toward China

British officials plan to increase their stockpile of nuclear warheads to counter “diversifying” threats, following a strategic policy review that emphasized London’s desire for a “calibrated” approach to managing China’s growing power.

“Given our stocks and given the diversifying threat that we face, I think, undoubtedly, we’re making sure we can maintain that minimum credible deterrent,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Wednesday during an Atlantic Council event.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to build the the United Kingdom’s nuclear arsenal up to as many as 260 warheads, a substantial increase from the previous cap of 180. That plan emerged from a post-Brexit review of the British national security interests, unveiled Tuesday, a document that reflected transatlantic interest in allied efforts to mitigate China’s emergence as a geopolitical rival to the United States.

“Proliferation of CBRN weapons, advanced conventional weapons and novel military technologies will increase the risk and intensity of conflict and pose significant challenges to strategic stability,” the review document observed, referring to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. “The significant impact of China’s military modernization and growing international assertiveness within the Indo-Pacific region and beyond will pose an increasing risk to UK interests.”

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China’s military modernization plan includes a rapid increase in nuclear warheads, according to the U.S. government. “Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile — currently estimated to be in the low 200s — is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces,” the Pentagon revealed in September.

Russia’s nuclear forces also alarm Western strategists, given the Kremlin’s apparent interest in developing the so-called “low yield” nuclear weapons that could appear on a battlefield without triggering a total nuclear Armageddon.

“Russia will remain the most acute direct threat to the UK, and the U.S. will continue to ask more from its allies in Europe in sharing the burden of collective security,” the British review stated. “Overall, however, the distribution of global political and economic power — both within and between states, and between regions – will continue to change, with direct and indirect implications for UK interests. By 2030, it is likely that the world will have moved further towards
multipolarity, with the geopolitical and economic centre of gravity moving eastward towards the Indo-Pacific.”

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Raab struck a diplomatic note regarding Beijing. “We need a calibrated approach,” he said. “China is here to stay. We don’t believe that we’ve hearkened back to an old Cold War mentality or paradigm … At the same time, we’re absolutely resolute about standing up robustly and rigorously when British interests are affected.”

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