As French voters head to the polls this Sunday in the first of what is expected to be a two-round presidential election, polls suggest far-right leader Marine Le Pen is zeroing in on incumbent President Emmanuel Macron.
Le Pen, who has worked to soften her image since the 2017 election and appeal to France’s moderate base, has seen a surge in support in recent weeks with one poll showing the two in a dead heat for the presidency in a potential runoff with Le Pen receiving 49% of the vote compared to Macron’s 51%, according to a YouGov and Datapraxis poll published Friday.
“All our data suggests the second round is now too close to call,” said Paul Hilder, the founder of Datapraxis, to the New Statesman, a British political magazine. “Whatever happens, this will be the best result ever for the French far right.”
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The poll, conducted between Monday and Thursday, shows Macron leading the first round of voting Sunday with 26% of the vote and Le Pen trailing close behind at 23%. Other candidates in the crowded field fall in their shadows, with far-right nationalist Eric Zemmour projected to receive just 13% of the vote after being criticized in recent weeks for sympathizing with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Per France’s electoral process, if no candidate reaches a majority vote in the first round, it goes to a runoff with the two who received the largest number of votes in the first.
“Le Pen’s reserves, people on the fence for the second round, but who think Macron would be worse, are more positive about her and could mobilise more easily, while Macron’s supposed reserves, many left voters amongst them, mostly hate him too. He is close to his ceiling, but she has room to grow,” Hilder said.
The French presidential election could have ripple effects on international policy if Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally political party, secures a historic win as the first female president in the country’s history.
Le Pen departs from her incumbent opponent on a number of issues such as foreign policy, seeking to disentangle France from several international commitments, including NATO’s military command, while backing an increase in France’s defense budget by billions by 2027.
While maintaining a “French First” attitude promising strict limits on immigration and a ban on the Muslim headscarf in public places, Le Pen supported accepting Ukrainian refugees within days of Russia’s invasion.
This will be Le Pen’s third run for president. She was most recently defeated in the 2017 runoff against Macron, after a surprising win in the first round. Le Pen has sought to detoxify the old image of her party since then, which was once rooted in racist and xenophobic policies, in an attempt to broaden her base.
Meanwhile, Macron, the leader of “La Republique En Marche!” (a political party he founded in 2016), has largely been away from the campaign trail, leading France’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing him to put his pro-NATO stance in the spotlight.
Until recently, it appeared he would handily win reelection despite lagging support among French citizens, pushing for raising the retirement age and attempting to liberalize France’s economy.
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Though the election’s outcome has not been decided, France’s transition of power is expected to take place on May 13. The next leader will hold a key role as France is one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto power and helps steer the European Union’s response to the invasion.
