I don’t think I’ve ever wanted to be wrong about something as badly as I do about the Middle East. I see Iraq as a strategic failure — a failure to change the behavior of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt or Syria — the drivers of the violent, radical, worldwide Islamist movement.
It’s a failure for many reasons, including Bush’s inability to develop and sustain a political consensus on the basic question of Iraq.
Today, the Democratic-led House of Representatives is considering essentially a no-confidence vote on the war. This symbolic act matters a great deal because it is a nail in the coffin of the strategic goals of the war.
In the face of a deeply divided domestic polity, the rulers we meant to frighten have very little to be scared of; it is clear that America is not determined enough today to bear the costs of a sustained war in the Middle East.
What comes next? Bush’s only cards are the “I don’t have to run again” pressure he’s placing on Iran (which are having some positive effects) backed by the potential that he’s crazy enough to actually do something — even in the face of impeachment and GOP electoral disaster in 2008 (hint: it won’t happen).
So what, then, are the Democrat’s cards?
Bush had a concept — right or wrong, well-executed or badly — about how to deal with Iraq. Now, we’re left with three logical options. First, the problem will die out because it really isn’t that big a deal and those of us who think it is a big deal are wrong
Second, Bush will somehow manage to drive the situation to a conclusion using the remaining shreds of political capital he has to spend.
Third, we’ll implement the Democratic plan — which is not completely expressed or understood — but involves some combination of negotiation with allies to create common causes of action, negotiation with our stated enemies to see if we can come to agreements that limit their bad behavior, heightened internal security, and low-level special-ops type military efforts aimed at targeted groups and individuals.
Or fourth (and worst), external events will drive us, and what we do will be purely reactive.
I hope I’m wrong and that the violent anti-Western Islamist movement has peaked and starts to recede. I’m doubtful, personally. A U.S. stand-down in Iraq will no matter how it’s spun by Washington be spun on the jihadi Web and in Islamist media as a defeat for the Crusader forces who were driven away by the brave Mujhadeen.
The likely spasm of sectarian violence will result in more bloodshed and instability which is likely to drive the population toward joining more radical and violent groups both out of frustration and rage and out of desperation.
I’d love to see Bush pull a rabbit out of his hat and drive some resolution of the conflicts with these radical forces. But what I’m seeing doesn’t fill me with hope there either. Bush has made a weak deal with North Korea, and is aligning himself with the Saudi/Egyptian Sunnis as a perceived bulwark against Iran.
What it looks like from here is an America that will be used to settle age-old scores in the Middle East and protect kleptocracies that oppress their people and stand at the root of the ideologies that are pushing the more radical parts of the Islamist movement.
A coherent Democratic/liberal position is needed, but I’ve watched smart people like those involved in the Truman Project be stymied by the gap between a progressive ideology that can’t recognize Islamism as a threat and practical statecraft that does.
It’s not impossible — liberal intellectuals here and in the UK have created the Euston Manifesto that tries to align progressive Western politics against the religious fascism represented by radical Islam.
Spring is a season of hope. And I can hope that Bush finds a voice, and begins to explain and defend what he’s trying to do and that he’s able and willing to create a base of support for the war we’re in.
I can also hope that a rational opposition appears and that my fellow Democrats embrace the Euston spirit and combat a movement which threatens not only the values of liberal thought, but our security and well-being as well.
Ultimately reality checks all our beliefs and grand plans. Reality will ultimately let us know what we need to do, and I am confident that once it is clear what it is, we will rise to do the right thing.
Marc Danziger is a member of The Examiner Blog Board of Contributors and blogs at windsofchange.net.
