Aside from his “Trump problem,” Rep. Mike Gallagher would begin the Wisconsin Senate race a consensus Republican to succeed Sen. Ron Johnson, who is contemplating retirement.
Gallagher raised $830,000 in the first quarter, entering April with a nearly $2 million war chest, sparking speculation of a 2022 Senate bid should Johnson quit. The compelling, 37-year-old, third-term congressman is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq and is adept at foreign policy. He has outperformed other top Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, in Green Bay’s swingy 8th Congressional District, projecting viability in a GOP primary and general election.
However, there is one particularly steep hurdle, according to multiple Republican insiders with Wisconsin ties who otherwise fawn over Gallagher’s potential: His rocky relationship with Trump.
“He has a Trump problem,” one of them said. Another added: “Gallagher is an outstanding candidate in a cycle where the litmus test is not support for President Trump. But since this is 2022, he’s a strong candidate with a serious problem — grassroots outrage over his relationship with the president.”
Out of deference to Johnson, Wisconsin’s senior elected Republican, Gallagher is not making any overt moves toward a Senate campaign. But his team is embracing the speculation spotlight, distributing a post-2020 campaign memorandum emphasizing his strength in northeastern Wisconsin, a key battleground in this swing state, and showing how he stacked up against other prominent Republicans — and President Joe Biden.
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“With 64% of the vote total and a 28% margin of victory, Congressman Gallagher led his fellow Wisconsin Congressional Republicans in terms of percentage of support and size of victory in 2020,” the memo read.
“Gallagher’s support across Northeast Wisconsin consistently exceeded that of President Trump, who won the district by an impressive 16%. Gallagher won swing counties like Brown and Outagamie with over 60% and dominated in traditionally-Republican areas, amassing over 70% in Marinette, Oconto, Waupaca and Winnebago Counties,” it added. “In the village of Allouez — which featured the most swing wards from 2016 — Congressman Gallagher received 56% of the vote, outperforming Biden (55%), Trump (45%).”
Trump likes a winner. These numbers might be enough to convince the former president to endorse Gallagher in a competitive primary — or at least to refrain from trash-talking him.
But as Trump looks to wield his seal of approval as a tool to fill Congress with more loyalists, it’s unclear if Gallagher’s formidable political status would be reason enough for Trump to overlook past criticism and policy differences. Gallagher repudiated Trump’s call to block the certification of Biden’s Electoral College victory and essentially held the 45th president responsible for the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol by his grassroots supporters. The two previously clashed on certain national security matters.
Gallagher never voted to impeach Trump, however — neither in 2019 over his attempts to solicit dirt on Biden from Ukraine nor for his alleged role in inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. And he supported the former president’s agenda more than 90% of the time with his votes on the House floor.
“Gallagher would definitely be the best, and preferred, candidate by many if Ron-John doesn’t run,” a Republican operative said, referring to Johnson. “My question: Does he have a Trump problem in a primary?”
Other Republicans mentioned as possible 2022 Senate contenders include Reince Priebus, the former Republican National Committee chairman, former Wisconsin GOP chairman, and Trump’s White House chief of staff; former Rep. Sean Duffy or his wife, Fox television personality Rachel Campos-Duffy; businessman Eric Hovde, a candidate for Senate in 2012; and 2018 Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson.
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Johnson has down-talked the possibility of his seeking a third term but is being encouraged to reconsider by Senate GOP leaders and Trump, who recently issued a statement urging him to stick around Washington for another six years.
“Even though he has not yet announced that he is running, and I certainly hope he does, I am giving my Complete and Total Endorsement to Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin,” Trump said. “Run Ron run!”
