It has been 20 years since a Republican won Michigan in a presidential election. George H. W. Bush carried the state over Michael Dukakis in 1988, but Democrats prevailed in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. Most agree Barack Obama cannot win the White House without carrying the state’s 17 electoral votes. That’s why these two polls are significant. Both show the race as highly competitive, with John McCain holding a four-point lead in both–just within each survey’s margin of error. This is better than expected news for the Arizona Senator in a state that has become a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level over the past two decades. The poll results get a little murkier, however, when it comes to the impact of the vice presidential choice. Survey USA gives McCain a bump over most of the potential Democratic tickets by adding Mitt Romney as his running mate. Specifically, it shows a McCain/Romney combination leading a Obama/Clinton ticket by five points. But the EPIC/MRA poll shows opposite results when Hillary Clinton gets added as the VP choice. McCain leads 44%-40% in a head-to-head against Obama in this survey. But a potential McCain/Romney ticket trails Obama/Clinton 44%-51%, quite a big swing comparing the two polls. The EPIC/MRA poll supports the thesis that adding Clinton produces the strongest ticket, unifying the party and possibly reconnecting Obama to lower-income white voters who could otherwise defect to McCain. The Survey USA poll does not support that view. Putting Michigan in play is good news for team McCain. Both the Arizona Senator and Barack Obama may need even more polling data to accurately assess how a VP selection plays out in this critical battleground state. These two recent polls point in different directions.
