CLEVELAND — Congress won’t ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the foreseeable future, according to the lawmaker who leads the campaign arm of the House Republicans.
“My guess is that if you put it up for a vote on the floor today, it would go down dramatically,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden said during an Atlantic Live breakfast at the Republican National Convention.
Support for the deal on the Right has weakened with the rise of Donald Trump, but Walden maintained that the GOP remains a pro-free trade party. But Democratic antipathy to free trade deals, along with some attrition among Republicans, conspire to doom TPP.
Walden thinks only about 10 House Democrats would vote for the agreement, which covers 11 Pacific Rim countries. That’s a far cry from Democratic support for trade deals during Bill Clinton’s presidency. “He was able to get 50 or 60 votes for these agreements, and that’s what I think it’s going to take,” the Washington Republican said.
The TPP needs that much Democratic support to achieve a House majority because dozens of Republicans are likely to vote against the deal.
“You get down in the south, tobacco-growing areas, they’re like, ‘we were left out, there’s no way we can vote for it,'” Walden said. “You get into the upper midwest, pharmaceuticals have issues with it. Some of the car manufacturers have issues with it. So you get to hear from your members who have voted for trade agreements in the past who say, ‘You know I got problems with this trade agreement for these reasons. My constituents are unhappy about X, Y and Z.’ And unless you can figure those pieces out somehow, I’m not sure, given how this came together, that’s possible.”
Trump hasn’t helped that effort, given his regular complaint that Asian countries have out-negotiated American leaders. But Walden took a subtle shot at Trump while noting that TPP would have foreign policy benefits in addition the economic payoff he expects. “Ironically, TPP does a lot to box in China, if you will, and give us an upper hand, or a better hand in those negotiations and geopolitical security issues,” he said.
