THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE in Congress is one of a handful of polarizing issues at the forefront of this election season. In Arizona’s District 8, which sits adjacent to the Mexican border, immigration is the issue. When asked to name the single most important issue when choosing a candidate, 45.8 percent of likely voters listed border control/immigration, compared with 10.7 percent who considered the Iraq war their top priority. In this year’s congressional race, voters have a clear choice for a remedy to the border situation: close the borders or leave them open but monitored.
Republican Randy Graf, a Minuteman advocate and former state representative, and Democratic nominee Gabrielle Giffords, a former state senator, are vying for retiring Republican Jim Kolbe’s seat in a battle that has seen many twists and turns. Giffords has led by a margin of 8 to 12 points in the non-partisan polls since the primary, and while the race was all but abandoned by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) early on, some prominent Republicans, including those who disagree vehemently with Graf’s hard line on immigration, are coming to his aid. The Giffords campaign, however, remains confident that she has this race in the bag.
Last November Kolbe announced his retirement after 11 terms in office. The primary that ensued was a fierce five-way contest for Republicans; Graf’s campaign manager R.T. Gregg jokingly described it as a “Republican knife fight in the phone booth.” It was also held relatively late–September 12–leaving just eight weeks to mend fences and reunite the party. And boy were there fences to mend. Gregg said that Graf was never the “establishment candidate,” to put it politely.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, in an unusual move, poured money into the Republican primary–more than $200,000 to back Graf’s opponent Steve Huffman. What’s more telling is that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee funneled $190,000 toward efforts to attack Huffman in ad spots in the primary, seeing him as the bigger threat in the general election.
Graf, who challenged Kolbe in the 2004 primary, and was defeated by an arguably unimpressive margin for a longtime incumbent (57 percent to 43 percent), was able to scrape away votes from the others, beating Huffman 42.2 percent to 37.6 percent. In the end his challengers threw their support behind him, and the NRCC donated $10,000 to Graf. But then, less than two weeks after the primary, the NRCC pulled $1 million of ads they had planned to run, believing that Giffords, who was up by 19 points in a poll released by her campaign days after the primary, had an insurmountable lead. The DCCC diverted its funds from the general election after the NRCC backed out.
Graf has garnered endorsements from Sen. John McCain, Sen. John Kyl, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of California, Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and the entire Arizona Congressional delegation, save for Kolbe, who released a statement noting that he “would not be true” to his own principles if he did endorse him because they have “such profound and fundamental differences” on their views. While this was once thought a hindrance to success for Graf, it may have been a blessing in disguise; in light of the Mark Foley scandal, Kolbe has come under scrutiny for allegedly taking a camping trip with male congressional pages in 1996, the same year he publicly disclosed his homosexual orientation. Representative Duncan Hunter and Speaker Dennis Hastert have both appeared on the campaign trail beside him. Hastert, who hosted a Washington, D.C., fundraiser for Graf in late September, spoke on Monday in Tuscon at a private luncheon for Graf.
As for Giffords, she’s been endorsed by the likes of General Wesley Clark, former Sen. Tom Daschle, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, and Arizona Congressman Raúl Grijalva. Her primary wasn’t nearly as discordant; in a six-way race, she captured an outright majority with 54.3 percent–one opponent received a respectable 31.2 percent while the rest were stuck in the single digits. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is slated to appear at a rally on Thursday with Giffords, and President Bill Clinton will campaign on Thursday as well at a rally for Senate candidate Jim Pederson, which Giffords and other Democrats on the ballot will attend.
In a district that leans only slightly Republican (President Bush won 53-46 percent in 2004 and 50-46 percent in 2000, but Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano also received a majority in 2002), Kolbe won by a landslide in 2004 and 2002 (60-36 and 63-34, respectively). Kolbe’s success is due in part to his moderate stances: He co-sponsored a bill along with McCain and Rep. Jeff Flake of the 6th District calling for a guest worker program granting six-year visas to new aliens and three-year visas to current illegal immigrants.
District 8 encompasses most of Tuscon, parts of Pima and Pinal counties, and all of Cochise County and part of Santa Cruz County, both of which directly border Mexico. The district is about three-quarters white and 18 percent Hispanic. Minuteman Jim Coniglio, Chairman of the Republican Party in legislative district 30 (in Pima County), said that some of Graf’s supporters come from the latter group of legal Hispanics, which he says feels “threatened and looked down upon” by rising crime rates and the resources spent on educating children of illegal immigrants.
While Graf maintains that he’s not a one-issue candidate, much of his platform stems from his strong feelings about a border solution. He touts his work on Proposition 200 in the state legislature, which requires proof of citizenship for voter registration, photo identification at the polls, and proof of citizenship or legal residency in order to receive social benefits. The measure passed as a referendum on the ballot in 2004 by 56 percent. Giffords opposed this measure, and her campaign manager Rodd McLeod dismissed it as irrelevant in this election. Prop 200 was challenged in court; a federal district judge upheld it, then the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals handed down an injunction at the beginning of October, which was finally vacated by the U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 20.
The effect of immigration on the areas that border Mexico is so tremendous that it warranted a declaration of emergency by Gov. Janet Napolitano. Graf detailed the economic strain of illegal immigrants on the district: increased costs for schools, hospitals, the criminal justice system, and social programs that are passed along to the taxpayer to the tune of more than $1.5 billion a year, according to Graf.
I spoke with Graf just hours after Bush signed the Secure Fence Act, which authorized the construction of a 700-mile fence along the border (it remains underfunded, and an exact location is yet to be determined). He described it as a good first step, but called for further action to secure the border. Graf is a longtime friend of Minuteman founder Chris Simcox, and he’s spent time on the border with Minuteman patrols. He contends that developing new guest worker programs won’t work; it’s necessary to first secure the border and then look at improving the current structure of guest worker programs and visa laws already on the books.
McCain, who supports President Bush’s comprehensive immigration plan, including a guest worker program, has come under fire for backing Graf, and Graf has also been criticized by some of his supporters for McCain’s blessing. Graf admits that they differ on immigration, but he praises the senator’s strong position on national defense and his outspokenness against wasteful spending.
Giffords’s manager, Rodd McLeod, said that she is critical of the Fence act, since it didn’t include employer sanctions and was incomplete, but she said it “does do necessary things.” Oddly enough, Giffords backs McCain’s plan; she’s for stronger border enforcements and more agents, as well as a guest worker program that allows people to come “out of the shadows” and prevents worker exploitation. McLeod says Giffords thinks our “Judeo-Christian ethic” mandates an “obligation to help people.”
Graf is not only running to the right of some Republicans, including President Bush, on immigration. He notes that people are “frustrated” with the Republican party, and chastises them for poor fiscal management. He would pass even more tax cuts. He opposes No Child Left Behind and sees it as an “intrusion” where the federal government has “no constitutional role.”
On social issues, predecessor Kolbe is actually more in line with Giffords than with Graf. Kolbe voted against bans on partial-birth abortion, same-sex marriage, and human cloning. Graf holds the exact opposite views. Graf’s strategy of painting Giffords as too liberal–he points out that she’s a board member of the ACLU, supports late-term and partial-birth abortion, and sponsored legislation in the state legislature on euthanasia–might work against him.
When it comes to Iraq, Graf doesn’t quibble with the Iraq war like some fellow Republicans, but instead recognizes it to be the “central battle” in the war on terror. Giffords, not unlike other Democrats, has called for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation, and favors a “strategic redeployment plan” that doesn’t have a firm timetable.
Many of the political predictions reports categorize the race as “Democrat favored” or a “likely Democratic takeover”; the most recent Evans-Novak political report, The Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, and CQPolitics all share this conclusion.
Giffords’s fundraising advantage–she has raised around $2 million compared with Graf’s $1 million–makes a significant difference for ad blitzes, but Graf isn’t giving up without a fight. He just released an ad slamming Giffords for her alleged involvement in a “sweetheart” land deal, which doesn’t appear to be substantiated by public records.
McLeod isn’t worried at all; he cites a comfortable “double-digit” lead in the polls. But one poll released last week by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4 (Zimmerman poll) has Giffords up by 10 points–just qualifying for double digits–with 10 percent undecided. Libertarian David Nolan and independent Jay Quick, also in the race, each poll at 1 or 2 percent. A Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday shows Giffords with an 11-point margin. It seems like Giffords has the upper hand in this race, as long as she doesn’t ease up going into the home stretch and start measuring the drapes just yet.
Whitney Blake is an editorial assistant at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
Correction appended, 11/3/06: The piece originally attributed quotes to Jonathan Neal from the Giffords campaign. Instead, the quotes came from Rodd McLeod, the Gifford campaign’s manager.
