New polling in four battleground states show the presidential race is tight heading into the final 60 days of the campaign.
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in North Carolina, 47-43, and Pennsylvania, 48-43, while Donald Trump is slightly ahead in Ohio, 46-45, according to new Quinnipiac University polling. The two candidates are tied in Florida at 47 percent.
When Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein are added to the polls, Trump’s lead grows in Ohio to 4 percentage points, 41-37. The margin between the two candidates in the three other states — Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — does not change when Johnson and Stein are included in the polls.
“The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio,” said Peter Brown, Quinnipiac University assistant director, in a statement. “Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs.”
The tie in Florida is largely attributable to the state’s racial divide, as whites overwhelmingly support Trump and non-whites go for Clinton in large numbers.
Clinton’s edge in North Carolina benefits from a “very small gender gap,” which shows Clinton up 2 percentage points on Trump with men, 46-44, and Clinton ahead 7 points among women, 49-42.
Independent voters may prove to be the determinative factor in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump’s lead in Ohio is bolstered by a 2-percentage-point advantage among independent voters, 43-41 and independent voters are going for Clinton in Pennsylvania by 12 points, 51-39.
Quinnipiac University’s poll surveyed 761 likely voters in Florida, 751 likely voters in North Carolina, 775 likely voters in Ohio, and 778 likely voters in Pennsylvania. The Florida and North Carolina polls have a 3.6-percentage-point margin of error, while the Ohio and Pennsylvania polls have a 3.5-point margin of error.
