Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center argues 2008 is the most unpredictable election in decades. “In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle,” he wrote yesterday. And as the chart below demonstrates, since 1992, by pretty healthy margins:
Not so this year. When Pew asked voters two weeks ago to put aside their own preference and just crystal ball the winner, 39 percent picked Obama and 39 percent predicted McCain. Why all the uncertainty? Kohut writes this:
Both of Kohut’s explanations suggest unease with the candidates. But I also believe most undecided voters also like both Obama and McCain, which leads to additional fluidity in public opinion. Voter uncertainty about the outcome is validated by yesterday’s Gallup poll finding the race back to a 46 percent to 46 percent tie. Read the full Pew report here.
