Pew released an interesting poll yesterday, documenting the anatomy of the tightening presidential race. Like other recent national polls, the overall the survey shows a near dead heat (Obama leads 46 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with a +/- 2.5% margin of error). But looking behind the numbers reveals the basis of the McCain improvement in the past month. Pew believes two dynamics account for the Republican Senator’s enhanced fortunes in several national polls:
Two factors appear to be at play in shifting voter sentiment. First, McCain is garnering more support from his base – including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants – than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period. Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.
A couple more notable changes since the June Pew survey:
On the issue of which candidate would use “good judgment.” McCain’s lead over Obama grew from +9 to +15. When it comes to “taking unpopular stands” the Arizona Senator improved from +3 to +11. And on the perception of being able to “get things done,” McCain moved from a 6%-point deficit to a 2-point lead. Some subgroup gains should also concern Team Obama. Since June, McCain has gained 7 points among white evangelicals and those with a high school education or less. The Arizona Senator also has gained 6 points among low-income Americans (earning less than $30,000 per year). Questions about Obama’s “experience” continue as the biggest uncertainty concerning his candidacy, while voters say McCain’s “economic policies” raise the biggest doubts about his background and positions. McCain’s improvement among his base voters and these critical subgroups account for the race nearing parity in last several weeks – raising the stakes for both candidates on the eve of the two party conventions.
