After a number of wildly unexpected down-ballot successes on Election Day, Republicans are optimistic about maintaining control of the Senate but need to keep an eye on their suburban woes.
As of Thursday, Republicans are set to control 50 seats in the Senate next year before the Georgia special elections. Should the GOP win just one of those two races, the GOP will enjoy a narrow majority in the upper chamber and a definitive veto over much of President-elect Joe Biden’s policy agenda.
On Jan. 5, Sen. David Perdue will face Jon Ossoff after the GOP incumbent narrowly failed to reach 50% of the vote on Election Day. Ossoff, meanwhile, earned 48% of the vote.
Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp following Sen. Johnny Isakson’s resignation in 2019, is being challenged by the Rev. Raphael Warnock. She also faced a strong Republican opponent in Rep. Doug Collins in the first round of balloting.
But despite the relatively impressive showing by the two GOP candidates, the state can hardly be considered safely red. Traditionally Republican voters in the Atlanta suburbs shifted to Biden, a Democrat, for the first time in generations.
Georgia’s last runoff race was in 2008. That year, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss won by roughly 15 percentage points despite leading by only 3 points in the November general.
But Chambliss’s strength, college-educated whites, can no longer be taken for granted by candidates such as Loeffler and Perdue, who more likely than not enjoyed some coattails from Trump in rural regions of the state despite the fact that he ultimately lost Georgia to Biden by under 12,000 votes.
Moreover, runoffs are defined by turnout. Here, again, the GOP could find itself at a disadvantage. Two of the highest-turnout groups — college-educated whites and black people — are now considered the backbone of the Democratic coalition.
Already, Democratic groups are flooding Warnock and Ossoff with tens of millions of dollars — close to $80 million —and framing the election around a final repudiation of Trump. Loeffler and Perdue, meanwhile, have raised just over $32 million since Nov. 3.
The Rand Paul-affiliated Protect Freedom PAC has committed to spending $3 million on the GOP candidates, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee has appointed Sen. Todd Young and Karl Rove to help oversee the party’s ground game and fundraising.
“America’s fate rests on the outcome of these Georgia races,” said Rove in a statement. “Democrats have not been shy about what they’ll do if Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi run Congress, so it’s imperative every freedom loving American go all in for Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler so they’re victorious.”
Trump’s current disputes with the vote totals in the state could end up harming the two candidates, both by dampening Republican turnout should they sincerely believe the process is rigged and by further energizing the Democratic base.
Ossoff’s campaign claims to have 22,000 volunteers ready to begin door-knocking as well as a sophisticated voter registration to target individuals who turn 18 now until the day of the January runoff.
