More than 1 in 4 new households coming as a result of job growth at Aberdeen Proving Ground will be in Aberdeen and Havre de Grace, a new study predicts.
Given their proximity to the base, available housing stock and land zoned for residential development, Aberdeen and Havre de Grace will get about 4,000 of the 13,800 new households expected in Harford between now and 2012, according to a study by Sage Policy Group, a Baltimore consulting firm.
The Base Realignment and Closure process is projected to bring more than 19,000 new residents to Harford as military jobs move to the base and defense contractors follow.
“The city knows the numbers, and we tremble as we should, as the epicenter of a BRAC that will transform APG as an economic engine, Aberdeen Mayor S. Fred Simmons said.
“The city would have loved to have the resources to get all the infrastructure in ahead of development, but with our limited tax base and the enormity of the expense, we have to look to the county, the state and the federal government to help us.”
Havre de Grace Mayor Wayne Dougherty remained confident his city would have enough room to accommodate new residents, along with needed schools and sewer capacity.
“By 2012, we?ll be in great shape,” Dougherty said. “Havre de Grace is really better off than anybody else as far as capacity goes.”
The city has housing capacity to spare in the Bulle Rock and Greenway Farms developments, along with four other subdivisions that haven?t begun construction yet, he said. All but one of the local schools have room to spare, and an expansion at the water treatment plant is expected to increase sewage capacity by the time the moves are made.
Another 3,400 households will move to Abingdon and Emmorton, south of Bel Air, the study said, and Sage President Anirban Basu credited a planned expansion of the Abingdon water treatment plant with creating greater potential for development.
About 3,200 new households are expected in the rural areas outside Harford?s “development envelope,” the inverted-T-shaped zone along Route 40 and Route 24 where the county prefers to concentrate development.
But 84 percent of the residential land inside the development envelope would be developed by 2017 if most growth is concentrated there, the study said.
“Outside the building envelope is attractive to people because everybody wants to live on a large piece of land with nice views,” said Judy Blomquist, past president of the Friends of Harford land-preservation group. She doubted the projections would prove accurate.
“Sometimes it?s more about where people want to build, where developers want to develop, rather than where people actually want to live,” Blomquist said.
