Repealing Obamacare would lead to an increase of up to $1 trillion to pay for treatment of patients who can’t afford to pay, a new analysis found.
in uncompensated care for the federal government and hospitals over the next decade, a new analysis found.
The findings come as Congress is considering repealing Obamacare but leaving it intact for a few years while a replacement is created. The Senate voted 51-49 on Wednesday for a procedural vote on a budget resolution that gets Obamacare repeal started, with Sen. Rand Paul, of Kentucky, the only Republican voting against it because he says he is concerned about increases to the deficit.
The Urban Institute, a left-leaning think tank, with funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, looked at the 2016 budget resolution for repealing Obamacare as a baseline for the analysis. However, the analysis doesn’t take into account that Republicans plan to keep Obamacare intact for a few years while a replacement is created and approved.
The resolution, which sets budgetary and spending levels for the next decade, does not include a replacement for the law. It starts a process to use the procedural move reconciliation to repeal the law without having to get 60 votes for a filibuster.
The analysis found an additional 30 million people would be uninsured and would seek $88 billion in care that the federal government and hospitals would have to pay for in 2019.
The study estimated that the number of uninsured in 2019 would increase from 28.9 million under Obamacare to 58.7 million.
“The coverage loss is larger than the estimated coverage gains stemming from the [Affordable Care Act] because partial repeal of this type would unravel the private nongroup insurance market,” the Urban Institute said.
The think tank was referring to the individual market, which is for people who don’t get insurance through their job and includes Obamacare’s marketplaces.
From 2019 to 2028, the newly uninsured would seek $1.1 trillion in additional uncompensated care, including $296 billion in hospital care, the analysis found.
Democrats have charged that repealing the law without an immediate replacement would throw the individual market into chaos. Insurers that have been sticking around hoping for the Obamacare markets to stabilize could bolt and leave millions uninsured, Democratic lawmakers have said.
Republicans have responded that the marketplaces are already collapsing and customers are facing double-digit price hikes.
The Senate is expected to vote on the budget resolution next week and hopes to get repeal legislation from Senate and House committees by Jan. 27.
The analysis relied on simulation models to estimate the reduction in spending on healthcare by insurers and households and the increase in uncompensated care.
