Iranian leaders are using Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s funeral to create a false image of unity within the country, according to analysts who warn against falling for regime propaganda just weeks after a brutal crackdown on dissidents.
“I have no doubt that there is a significant segment of the Iranian population that does feel strongly in some way about Soleimani, but then to say that Iranians writ large are united or Iranians writ large revere this man is absurd,” Shadi Hamid, a senior Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, told the Washington Examiner. “And anyone who says that is doing basically propaganda.”
Iranian dissidents maintain that the show of grief has been orchestrated by the regime’s security services. “The regime is using all the military garrisons and all the Basij militia members, as well as their families in the cities, and sending them to the streets,” Masoud Dalvand, an exiled Iranian human rights activist, told the Washington Examiner. “In addition, it closes schools and even many offices and universities, forcing students to take to the streets and punish them if they refuse.”
That assessment echoes the skepticism of Masih Alinejad, an Iranian author and activist who hosts a show on Voice of America, a U.S.-backed outlet. “Remember that such street shows are how dictators brag about their so-called ‘popularity,’” she tweeted this week.
Iranian state-run media claimed that “millions” of people turned out in the streets for Soleimani’s funeral procession, a multiday parade that culminated in a stampede that killed dozens of people in his hometown. That contributed to fears of Iranian retaliation and criticism of President Trump’s decision to conduct the strike last week, but Iranian dissidents and some U.S. analysts warn against over-stating the significance of such support.
“Qassem Soleimani had a cult following,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that has worked closely with the Iran hawks in Trump’s administration. “It stands to reason that in a country of 80 million people there are still some who support the regime and they would be the ones to turn out like this.”
The Soleimani funeral took place less than two months after Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered a crackdown on Iranian dissidents that left as many as 1,500 people dead, according to Reuters.
“The regime may not fear the opening of the streets as a faux show of force for Soleimani and as a faux measure of support for the regime is because they had so lethally put down the protests that started in November 2019,” Taleblu said. “My assumption of their calculus is that they felt less concerned about that. And even if there was any kind of popular protests, they simply wouldn’t get the time of day.”
Iranian officials have cited the apparent public support for Soleimani to justify a potential act of retaliation, but the regime is sending mixed signals about scale of that response, according to observers.
“The regime is shocked by the severity of the blow” from the United States when it killed Soleimani, Dalvand said. “Khamenei has come to realize after the event that the U.S. is very serious and will respond to any reaction with the heaviest blows that endanger the life of the regime. So the five days of mourning, and indeed the ridiculous carnival that turned into a disaster today in Kerman, with more than 50 people crushed and scattered and killed and hundreds injured, this is a complete scene of frustration.”
Hamid warned against overstating the scope or sincerity of the mourners, either way. “If Iran wants to retaliate, they’re going to do so whatever perceived public support is,” the Brookings Institution expert said.
