Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., cleared another hurdle on his way to becoming President Trump’s budget director when the Senate voted 52-48, along straight party lines, to advance his nomination Wednesday.
This sets up a final vote on whether to confirm Mulvaney Thursday, with two Republican senators holding the keys to his success.
Mulvaney’s nomination has been a rollercoaster ride. At times, the House Freedom Caucus member has seemed endangered, such as when it was disclosed he had failed to pay taxes on a nanny, something that has led to the withdrawal of past presidential nominees.
Recently, Mulvaney has seemed relatively safe. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., expressed grave reservations about Mulvaney’s record on defense spending and finally said on the Senate floor Wednesday that he would vote against his nomination.
But no other Republican came forward to press a similar case, including senators who often align with McCain on these issues. The anticipated public battle between defense hawks and budget hawks in a Senate Republicans only narrowly control never materialized.
Mulvaney’s nomination cleared not one but two committees and he overcame a potential filibuster. Even McCain has so far backed him on all procedural votes. The longtime senator casts his opposition as support for President Trump’s plans to boost military spending.
“We are watching Mick Mulvaney’s confirmation process closely, particularly Sen. John McCain’s shifting position,” said FreedomWorks press secretary Jon Meadows.
Then Tuesday night, ahead of the cloture vote, CNN reported that Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., shared McCain’s reservations about Mulvaney’s commitment to defense spending and might also vote no.
If Cochran and McCain vote against him, Mulvaney can only afford one more Republican defection before his nomination was in danger. Two GOP senators can oppose him on the final vote and he would be confirmed with Vice President Pence breaking the tie, as happened with Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.
The threat to Mulvaney’s nomination wouldn’t come from a vocal hawk, but a quiet one.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, a moderate who was one of the two GOP votes against DeVos, would then become the lawmaker to watch. She appears to be leaning yes on Mulvaney after a closed door meeting.
Republican Hill sources suggested that if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., didn’t think Mulvaney had the votes, instead of proceeding with cloture the result might have looked more like failed labor secretary pick Andrew Puzder, who withdrew Wednesday.
Under the current filibuster rules, Democrats don’t have the votes to block any Trump nominees without Republican defections, save his pick for the Supreme Court. But the Republican majority is small enough that it doesn’t take many defectors to cause confirmation headaches.
Whether Mulvaney makes it through on a 51-49 vote or it’s a nail-biter, his rollercoaster ride will soon come to an end.
