DOBBS WIN NOT END OF ‘HARD TOPICS’ DISCUSSION, SAYS MISSISSIPPI ATTORNEY GENERAL

Stevens, who flipped her Republican district in the 2018 blue wave, finds herself in a competitive race for the third election cycle in a row, helping her to tap into a national donor base and flood the zone with television advertisements and mailers directed at an electorate that leans increasingly toward absentee and early voting.

In the cycle so far, Stevens has pulled in close to $3.7 million, outgunning Levin’s haul by nearly 2-to-1, with strong support from outside groups.

In the first quarter, Stevens raised nearly $300,000 from the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the largest pro-Israel lobbying group in the United States, amounting to more than a quarter of her $1 million haul. Perhaps more significant is the boost from an AIPAC-linked super PAC, the United Democracy Project, which has pumped nearly $1 million into the race, focusing on advertisements that highlight Stevens’s role in the Obama administration auto rescue and her support for abortion rights. And it appears that outside investment may be paying off.

Across more than a dozen interviews, Democrats in the district told the Washington Examiner that Stevens is the “Obama auto rescue,” “a fighter,” and “aggressive” in a good way, as they lose faith in a White House many perceive as giving up the fight.

Asked how the money had altered the contours of the race, Levin told the Washington Examiner that it had upset many Democrats. “People don’t like the idea of that kind of dark money and unaccountable money and Republican money playing in a Democratic primary,” he said. “It just doesn’t feel good to a lot of people here.”

Political strategists said Stevens’s readiness is another factor tilting the race, with Democratic Michigan political consultant Joe DiSano arguing that “Stevens hit the ground running and never stopped.”

“He’s never had to do the real, small-ball fundraising at scale the way that congresswoman Stevens’s operation has,” said Adrian Hemond, the CEO of Michigan political consulting firm Grassroots Midwest. “Andy hasn’t had a real competitive race since he ran for the state Senate in 2006.” Levin lost that race.

Levin’s campaign disputes that he has not run a competitive race for more than a decade, pointing to his 2018 primary, in which he faced off against then-state Rep. Ellen Lipton and a local labor and employment lawyer. Levin ultimately won the race 52%-42%, but Lipton was a “formidable foil,” the Detroit Free Press said at the time. 

Like Stevens, Lipton was backed by EMILY’s List, a group that supports women running for office. Lipton raised more than $1 million, compared to Levin’s $900,935.   

“Andy’s 2018 primary was very competitive, and against a female opponent. He was outspent on TV and still won,” said Levin’s campaign Communications Director Jenny Byer. 

The nephew of the late Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) and the son of former Rep. Sandy Levin (D-MI), succeeding the latter on his retirement in 2018, Levin has a long history in the district and the liberal bona fides to capture a deep-blue electorate. But he is running up against a candidate whose message captures Democratic voters’ desire for taking the fight to the opposition and a fondness for the Obama years.

And though both have scored prominent endorsements, with Levin earning the backing of Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), as well as former Planned Parenthood head Cecile Richards, there too Stevens may have an edge.

An early endorsement by Lawrence, the four-term congresswoman whose current seat comprises about a third of the new district and includes Pontiac, Oakland County’s majority-black government seat, quickly established Stevens as a familiar face.

The Lawrence endorsement “has been a real wedge in the strategy of coalescing black voters behind Andy Levin,” DiSano said, describing Levin’s base as organized labor and the black community.

If that support falls away, “Andy Levin is a dead man walking,” he said.

One day before Independence Day, Stevens pulled up to the New Birth International Church in Pontiac, where she was set to meet around 30 congregants whose backing she was seeking in her bid to hold onto the 11th District seat.

Greeting Stevens was Veronica Taylor, a local grassroots organizer whose business cards show her and Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer under a slogan to “Vote Big Gretch.” Taylor cracked the door. “Hi, baby,” she called out.

Already inside was 11th District state Sen. Jeremy Moss, whom Stevens joined at the front for the service.

“I see her on television, and she’s a fighter,” Bishop Theresa Lee said, introducing Stevens about one hour into the congresswoman’s arrival for the service.

When Stevens got up to speak, she recalled how the pastor had prayed with her in Washington over the phone and appealed to the room to help keep her office.

“I come to Pontiac on the heels of greatness, on the heels of congresswoman Brenda Lawrence,” Stevens said. “And I’m running on a message that not just says that you matter. But that says I’m going to work my heart out for you. And I’m going to do so with the Lord by my side, with the Bishop Lee by my side.”

And even when the current 11th District congresswoman hasn’t landed endorsements, she’s been coming out ahead, some Michigan insiders argue.

“A lot of people went into this race assuming that the state AFL-CIO would endorse Levin because his family and himself have been champions of organized labor for decades,” said one political strategist who is unaffiliated with either candidate. “They decided not to endorse in this race, so even an endorsement that she didn’t get was kind of a coup.”

Unions can also donate the maximum contribution to a political campaign, which is helpful for a candidate looking to close the fundraising gap with an opponent.

In 2020, the United Auto Workers pressed President Joe Biden to appoint Levin to the government’s top labor post. But they, too, have stayed out of this race.

“It would be different if Andy Levin had the full support of organized labor,” DiSano said. “That’s a huge slap in the face with the family’s political history. But also a sign that this race is very, very close, and either one of them will represent the UAW interests well.”

Nevertheless, he added, “that was clearly a coveted endorsement and opportunity that Andy Levin lost.”

An internal poll of likely primary voters in late January had Stevens leading by double-digits with women, black voters, centrists, and workers in the auto industry, for an overall 7-percentage-point advantage over Levin.

Recent polling has shown this gap widening, according to the campaign.

And with early voting underway, Stevens’s fundraising edge is being put to work.

“Democrats are far more likely to vote absentee, and so that financial advantage and her being in mailboxes 5-to-1 and having more TV up, that’s a big deal because Democrats are voting right now,” said Hemond.

Democrats in the new 11th District told the Washington Examiner they regret having to choose between the two representatives.

“One of them should have decided not to pit themselves against each other,” said Kristine Sprague, a retired nurse. “Who that should have been, I don’t know.”

Sprague continued: “But all things being equal, as a woman, I’m always looking for more women representation in Congress. So it’s a tough, tough, tough choice.”

“I just hate to see both running for the same seat,” said Virgie Rollins, a Michigan power broker and the Democratic National Committee Black Caucus’s chairwoman. “They are both good Democrats. [I] hate to lose one.”

Levin “would make a great senator,” said Sheila Turney, a retired teacher in Birmingham, Michigan. “But Haley Stevens has been in the White House. She’s really deep into all the automotive stuff. She’s very current, she’s running on her own principles, and she’s aggressive.”

Many viewed the race as a distraction from their priority of taking on the Republicans.

It’s a “Democratic family feud,” said DiSano, calling it a waste of millions of dollars. “Voters don’t give a hoot about this. It’s unfortunate and unnecessary.”

Stevens argued that it was her district to win.

“You have to remember I’m the first Democrat since before the moon landing to hold the full two-year term in Michigan’s 11th District, and I’m the first Democrat in 100 years to win reelection,” Stevens said.

“When Mr. Levin called and said that he was going to run for the 11th District too, and he felt so bad about it — and he said that. I said, ‘Well, why wouldn’t you run for the 10th? Because that has 512,000 of your constituents, and we could use an incumbent there, right?’”

Levin resists that he should be the one to move.

“I’ve lived here much of my life. All my kids have gone to public schools here. My dad lives here. I live in Bloomfield Township. My dad lives in Royal Oak. I grew up in Berkeley. My dad’s mom was born in Birmingham. I’m running where I belong,” he told the Washington Examiner. “When I vote, it’ll be, I believe, the 17th consecutive time I’ve voted in the new 11th District. It’ll be my opponent’s first.”

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“My view is it’s not up to elected officials to choose their voters. It’s up to voters to choose their elected officials,” Levin said, a swipe at Stevens’s decision to move into the new 11th District late last year.

“So I’m running here because it’s where I’m from and it’s where I belong. Also, I feel like I’m the best fit for this new district, for sure,” he added.