This is one of those times when I like to remind readers that “early Senate polls don’t matter.” Nevertheless, these numbers showing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell trailing in his reelection bid will likely get a lot of attention among lefty blogs in the next few days. It shows the Kentucky Republican trailing his Democratic opponent Bruce Lunsford 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. The poll finds McConnell essentially tied among men, but losing to women 49 to 41 percent. It also shows him leading among younger voters, but trailing within other age groups. McConnell is also behind among independent voters by 4 points. Democrats certainly would like to take out a Republican leader. It would be a handsome payback for the GOP victory by Senator John Thune over then-Senate Democratic leader Senator Tom Daschle in 2004. So this poll will no doubt get some hype in the liberal netroots community, like this. It will also circulate widely in Democratic fundraising circles. Senator McConnell, however, is an extremely strong political tactician. He also knows the generic headwinds facing him this cycle and is taking steps to prepare. McConnell has repeatedly told pundits and his colleagues here in Washington his race will be tight despite the state’s Republican tilt in 2000 and 2004. At the presidential level, McCain leads Obama in Kentucky by 25 points in a head-to-head Rasmussen poll–another factor that might help offset the anti-GOP headwinds. The Democratic challenger is no stranger to controversy either–even with his own party. These are all points that will no doubt receive more attention as the campaign unfolds. Those looking to build a bonfire of bad news for the Senate GOP have lots of kindling to use this year. But despite this poll, once this campaign comes into focus, I don’t believe Kentucky will catch fire for the Democrats.
