Turnout Surge?

Turnout increased by over 10 million people compared to 2004, according to preliminary estimates by political scientist Michael McDonald at George Mason University. McDonald posts a lot of interesting data about voting levels on his website here. Some argued that because 2004 generated such high participation, 2008 might be hard to exceed – particularly if the youth vote was over hyped. Based on McDonald’s estimates, however, 2008 generated over 133 million total votes (compared to just over 122 million four years ago) with some ballots still not counted. He writes this:

My preliminary national turnout rate for those eligible to vote is 62.6% or 133.3 million ballots cast. This number may yet rise further as absentee ballots arrive and provisional ballots are processed, particularly in some western states. Until these outstanding ballots are counted, I would like to provide a conservative estimate. This turnout rate would be the largest since the 62.8% of 1964. If we top that number, which we might, the next highest turnout rate would be 63.8% in 1960.

Increased youth turnout may indeed have been overhyped, with voters age 18-29 comprising 18 percent of the electorate in 2008, up just one point from 2004’s 17 percent. But Obama’s appeal among those young voters made their vote more decisive this year as they chose Obama 66 percent to 32 percent, compared to 54 percent to 45 percent for Kerry in 2004.

Related Content