It’s the beginning of a big week for Washington. Congress returns from recess while the Trump administration prepares for its 100th day on Saturday. The campaign had made much of this initial period of a Trump presidency, releasing a “Contract with the American Voter” before the election that outlined a “100-day action plan to Make America Great Again.”
President Trump himself is now downplaying the 100-day marker as an “artificial barrier” and “not very meaningful.” That’s the smart play since, for starters, it happens to be true. Secondly, the president hasn’t accomplished much of his proposed 100-day agenda, and he isn’t likely to do that this week. So best to lower expectations and emphasize the areas where the administration believes they have been successful: the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, the federal hiring freeze, and a fruitful summit with Chinese president Xi Jinping, among others.
But a week is a long time in the Trump presidency, and the final week of the first 100 days—with a federal funding deadline approaching on Friday and members of Congress returning to Washington with fresh urgency following meetings with their constituents—could turn out like each of the previous 13: unpredictable and never according to plan.
Don’t Count on Obamacare Repeal This Week
Despite a recent push by some in the White House to try to pass an Obamacare repeal bill again this week, one administration official admits to me what Republicans on Capitol Hill have been saying for days: It’s not going to happen before Day 100.
There’s been a change in attitude on health-care legislation within the White House, more patient and understanding of the complexity of the issue—and how long it may take to pass a bill. At the same time, the administration knows what GOP House members are hearing from constituents and from donors. The pressure will be on the Republican conference to reach a consensus on health care as the midterm elections begin to peer above the horizon.
The White House hopes this brings the issue into focus for enough of the most conservative and centrist Republican members who opposed last month’s American Health Care Act.
Will There Be a Shutdown?
It’s hard to imagine how a government unified under one party could reach an impasse on funding and prompt a shutdown. But with the current continuing budget resolution running out on Friday, it’s a real question whether the House and Senate can pass a new spending measure in time. If enough conservative House members balk at a budget resolution that spends too much, can Paul Ryan rely on enough Democrats to cross over and support it? Could Mitch McConnell keep his conference together in the Senate and pull away enough Democrats from Chuck Schumer’s grip to pass it?
That’s the precarious situation the administration finds itself in, and its strategy is to insist on appropriations for the border wall in whatever funding mechanism passes this week. “I can’t imagine the Democrats would shut down the government over an objection to building a down payment on a wall that can end the lawlessness,” said Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a former U.S. senator, on Sunday.
The administration isn’t saying whether or not President Trump would veto a spending bill that doesn’t include the wall funding, though it seems to want Democrats on Capitol Hill to think he would. But why would the specter of a shutdown haunt Democrats? They may publicly worry about such a crisis, but prompting a shutdown amid complete Republican rule will be like throwing Schumer and Nancy Pelosi into the briar patch. There’s little incentive for Democrats to go along with Republicans and a lot of incentive for them to let the GOP preside over a shutdown.
Those power dynamics explain why the White House does not seem to be too worried about finding some way to avert a shutdown and fund the government. Republicans don’t have the strongest hand to play here, and the president won’t want his first 100 days capped off with a federal funding debacle.
More Details on Trump’s Tax Reform Proposal Coming Soon
Trump, in his interview with the Associated Press, said “we’re going to be announcing, probably on Wednesday, tax reform.” The White House itself isn’t committed to that date, but I’m told to expect some kind of detailed proposal that would mirror Trump’s plan from the campaign. That plan promised to simplify the tax code and lower business tax rates to at least 15 percent.
Song of the Day
“Moonage Daydream,” David Bowie.
