Most of the political world now expects Ted Cruz to emulate his running mate Carly Fiorina by falling down in Indiana. The only question is whether he will be able to get up as quickly.
Whether this conventional wisdom reflects the facts on the ground in Tuesday’s pivotal primary state remains to be seen. But in a cruel twist for Cruz, who was gaining on Republican front-runner Donald Trump just weeks ago, Fiorina’s unfortunate slip from the stage now looks like an apt metaphor for a campaign coming apart.
The polling overwhelmingly suggests Cruz will lose Indiana. While one poll has the Texas senator up by double digits, seven subsequent surveys have him trailing Trump, the last two by double digits. Cruz is down by 9.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, even after the unusual move of naming Fiorina as his running mate so far in advance of the Republican National Convention.
After a long drought of Hoosier polling, the Indiana GOP primary may be trending in a direction where picking up anti-Trump votes from John Kasich can’t save him, if the on-again, off-again Kasich-Cruz alliance is even still in effect.
Cruz staffers anonymously expressing nervousness in the media could suggest either internal polling that confirms this pro-Trump trend in Indiana or just a loss of confidence within the tightly disciplined campaign after a string of six primary losses in the Northeast.
Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s Cruz endorsement was widely panned as “tepid,” especially compared to Gov. Scott Walker’s critical support ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Trump received much warmer support from retired Indiana coaches Bobby Knight, Gene Keady, Digger Phelps and Lou Holtz.
That may be why Trump has had an easier time living down misspelling Knight’s name in a tweet than Cruz did referring to a “basketball ring.”
Viewed through this prism, even the symbolism of hypothetical Vice President Fiorina falling (Trump quickly pounced on Cruz’s failure to help her up) and verbal assaults by pro-Trump hecklers looks ominous.
Trump was always supposed to win New York and the five states that voted last week. But the billionaire won them so overwhelmingly — he didn’t lose a single county or congressional district last Tuesday — that he in effect wiped out Cruz’s recent gains in delegates and put himself back on track to reach the required 1,237 to win the nomination outright before the convention, maybe even without Indiana.
The biggest surprise was when Trump’s preferred slate of unbound delegates in Pennsylvania substantially outperformed Cruz’s. Even after the Texan’s big gains at state and local GOP state conventions, Trump leads Cruz 996 to 565 in total delegates, with Kasich way behind at 153.
Trump’s big night was followed by Cruz becoming mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates through the primary process to clinch the nomination on the first ballot. While Cruz remains in a much better position than Kasich, he is now confined to the negative goal of denying Trump a majority and forcing a contested convention.
Now there are even reports that the unbound delegates Cruz previously claimed are softening in their support. Cruz pinned his hopes on delegates committed to Trump going rogue after they became unbound following the first ballot in Cleveland, not delegates leaving him to hop on the front-runner’s bandwagon before the convention.
Trump is expected to take all of New Jersey’s delegates, tightly controlled by Gov. Chris Christie, who has endorsed the real estate developer. He is up by more than 30 points in the latest California poll and leading in Oregon, a state Cruz reportedly ceded to Kasich.
Even the national polling, where Trump is supposedly stuck at a 35 percent ceiling, show him gradually creeping up toward 50 percent of the vote. Cruz is below 30 percent in five of the last six polls included in the RealClearPolitics average.
Trump has managed to define Cruz as he did “Low Energy” Jeb Bush and “Little” Marco Rubio. While Cruz’s support from the Republican establishment is halfhearted and potentially short-lived, one poll found that 62 percent of Republicans view the senator as an establishment candidate and only 29 percent regard him as an outsider.
A lot can still change in this volatile Republican presidential contest and the media has often been too quick to mistake results in especially Trump-friendly or Cruz-friendly states for fundamental shifts in the race before. Momentum has generally been short-lived.
Cruz is defiant. He believes his ground game of proven Indiana Christian conservatives will deliver for him the way he was able to outhustle Trump in Iowa and elsewhere. He says an arrogant New York-centric media is inflating Trump’s delegate total with “bogus” numbers. His father Rafael has rallied evangelical pastors and the “body of Christ” to the cause.
“Some folks in the media confused Midwest nice for less-than-enthusiastic,” the younger Cruz said in defense of the Pence endorsement.
As popular conservative surrogates like Glenn Beck and Utah Sen. Mike Lee fan out across the state for Cruz, they implored Hoosiers to make the right choice in a battle between “good or evil, liberty or slavery.”
At this point if Cruz wins Indiana or even manages to come close, it would be a major public relations coup. It would also breathe new life into the reeling #NeverTrump movement nationwide at a time when the calendar is getting ready to flip toward more Cruz-friendly states this month.
Even keeping Trump’s lead below double digits might successfully be spun as Cruz exceeding expectations and the billionaire once again underperforming his poll numbers.
But the image of Cruz, the champion debater and Harvard Law graduate, debating goateed Indiana Trump supporters could be the defining moment of the whole primary campaign. Cruz calmly made his arguments against Trump’s conservative credentials, character, comments about Mike Tyson and credibility as an unlikely working-class hero.
“Sir, with all due respect, Donald Trump is deceiving you,” Cruz said.
“Indiana don’t want you,” they replied.
