What was supposed to be a summertime blowout for Barack Obama has become a deadlock on the eve of the conventions. If nothing else, the 2008 presidential race has done wonders for the humility of America’s political pundits.
Even for those members of the chattering class who strive to stay connected to the real America outside the green room, back room, barroom circuit of Washington, it was hard to imagine the collective shrug with which the American electorate would receive Obama.
So many of us assumed that Obama would have the same kind of experience in the general election that he had in the Democratic primaries. He would open up a big lead early and then give it away piece by piece.
The question was whether Obama would be far enough out in front to handle the last-minute anxieties that would peel away many voters worried about Obama’s race, inexperience or liberal record.
Instead, Obama is slouching into Denver looking to reenergize himself and his base while bantam rooster John McCain is still strutting around, spending money to tweak Obama.
So what happened on the way to Denver?
As usual, it was the result of a fundamental misunderstanding of Americans on the part of both politicians and the people who cover them. Obama’s team certainly started off the summer on the wrong foot.
That ghastly, Obamafied version of the presidential seal must haunt the dreams of whatever staffer came up with it the same way that the “Mission Accomplished” banner must still torment some in the Bush Administration.
We forget how dearly symbols like the seal are held by Americans in that great, deep center channel of our society. A lot of the folks who think about politics as seldom as possible but still go vote don’t like it when you make the Great Seal of the United States look like something the UN dreamed up.
Always meticulous and in control, Obama’s plan for the summer never got back on track.
The trip overseas was extreme overreach. Worse, when Republicans got a little traction zinging Obama for being a Euro celebrity not a U.S. leader, the Obama team overreacted.
Then there was the Hawaiian vacation.
I didn’t think there could have been a worse choice for a trip this year than McCain’s decision to spend the 4th of July in Mexico City. Obama proved me wrong with the most ill-fated trip to Hawaii state since Greg Brady entered that surfing contest.
Obama couldn’t have known that Mad Vald Putin would roll the tanks into a prospective NATO nation during the nominee’s August vacation. But even without the specter of a rising Russia, the trip would not have been a good call.
Aside from calling attention to Obama’s roots outside of what Mark Penn would call the “fundamentally American” experience, the trip was unwise for someone who has been tagged for not earning his position.
While battered John McCain managed to keep campaigning six days a week, Obama needed time off to play golf and hit the beach.
But Obama’s summer mistakes are not what have made this race so close. The mistakes have instead convinced journalists and Democrats what many voters knew all along: Obama is untested and unknown.
Pundits right and left assumed that the general electorate would swoon for Obama the way early Democratic primary voters did. That’s because the old rules said that no one was paying attention this winter and that Obama would have a chance to reintroduce himself.
But that assumption was flawed on two counts. First, people were watching and they got to know Obama pretty well by the time the Democratic primary process ground to a halt. The Internet and cable news have changed the electorate in ways we don’t yet understand.
Second, American voters are a lot more sensible and serious than they get credit for.
Chris Stirewalt is the political editor of The Washington Examiner.
