President Trump may dominate at the top of Montana’s ticket on Tuesday, but his fellow Republicans won’t have it so easy down the ballot.
A Montana State University Billings poll published last week found Trump was leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 7 percentage points in the race for the state’s three electoral votes.
But the same pollsters found that Montana’s Senate, House, and governor matchups were either tied or the candidates were separated by a single point.
[PREDICT TUESDAY’S WINNER WITH THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP]
Popular term-limited Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock was a point ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines in the Senate contest, according to the poll. Daines, a former House lawmaker, was first elected to the Senate in 2014 by 17 points.
Bullock’s four-year deputy, Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, was tied with at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte in the gubernatorial race, the poll found.
And in the head-to-head to replace Gianforte after three years in the House, Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale, a Republican, was 1 point in front of former Democratic state Rep. Kathleen Williams. Gianforte won his 2017 special election to succeed ex-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, and Rosendale previously lost his 2018 Senate campaign to Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
While those numbers were sourced from only one poll, other surveys suggest the down-ballot races are tight.
The New York Times and Siena College two weeks ago had Daines leading by 3 points, Gianforte leading by 4 points, and Rosendale leading by 4 points. And although the Cook Political Report considers Rosendale’s matchup to lean Republican, the other contests are toss-ups.
The Cooney-Gianforte race is the Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a governorship this cycle.
If Cooney fails on Tuesday, Democrats forfeit one of their 22 governor’s mansions. And it will be the first time a Democrat won’t be Montana’s state executive in 16 years. There are currently 27 Republican governors nationwide.
But it’s the Bullock-Daines race that’s captured the most national attention.
Democrats need to gain three to four seats in the Senate for a majority during the next Congress. And Montana is among the states with races too close to call, which include the races of Republican Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa, Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina as well as Georgia Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
Montana State University Billings political science professor Jason Adkins agreed that last month’s polling was tight.
“Also notable is the outside money has continued to flow into the state to support both candidates, which is always a tell,” he told the Washington Examiner.
As of the mid-October financial disclosures, Bullock had raised $43 million to Daines’s $27 million.
Adkins said he believes a Bullock victory hinges on turnout among younger voters, aged 18 to 29, who disproportionately back the White House also-ran.
“I think everyone thought the race would be competitive once Bullock entered the race. Daines was headed to an easy reelection before that,” he said.
Claremont McKenna College politics professor John Pitney, who was Bullock’s senior thesis adviser, also recommended watching younger voters.
“If they vote at a much higher rate than in the past, Bullock could win,” he said.
Pitney added that healthcare and education were among the top persuasive policy issues. And Bullock worked with Montana’s Republican-controlled legislature on Medicaid expansion and led the state’s relatively successful response to the coronavirus pandemic.
“It’s a very close election where extraordinary turnout creates a great deal of uncertainty. Daines has no reason to rest easy,” he said.
