President Trump loves to talk up the roaring economy he sees arriving sooner than you might think. “Once we get rid of the virus, I think we’ll have a boom economy … a tremendous rebound,” he insisted last week. “We’ll be the talk of the world soon. … We’re going to be stronger than ever.”
This is more than just the usual Trump hyperbole. He will be in a stronger position to free up parts of the economy from coronavirus restrictions than in late March, when he was pressured to back off his plan to do so by Easter. Trump had to yield to a superior force: the collusion of the public health network, both political parties, and the media. But if there are indications that the growth in new coronavirus infections has peaked by May, the president is poised to argue for easing constraints on some areas of the country and boosting the economy.
He would take advantage of the blue state/red state divide. The coronavirus has become a plague in urban areas, which are mostly in blue states. Red states, though not all of them, are less infected. Democrats, the blue-state folks, might object to loosened regulations, but red-state Republicans are more likely to favor an end to the current “lockdown.”
“States are different,” Trump said at a White House briefing. “You have to give a little flexibility for every state.” His idea here is to allow some of the less infected states to open up their economies by ending rules such as the “stay at home” requirement. The effect would be to hasten the rising economy that’s forever on the president’s mind.
It makes sense economically and politically. The longer the economy is strapped with restrictions, the longer it will take for it to revive — and the weaker the economy will be on Election Day in November.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York hasn’t endorsed Trump’s strategy. But he’s not far off. “The smartest way forward is a modified public health strategy that dovetails and complements a get-back-to-work strategy,” Cuomo said. “Younger people can go back to work. People who can … show they have had the virus and resolved can go back to work. It’s not [that] we’re either going to do public health or we’re going to do economic development. We’re going to do both.”
The sticking point with Trump’s effort to stir economic activity is the timetable. It’s clear from his comments he wants to start revving the economy in May, a few weeks after Easter.
The New York Times has other ideas. Keeping people tethered inside for two months or more doesn’t faze the press giant. Nor does associating their notion with historic greatness. “It’s a Marshall Plan, an Apollo mission and a New Deal all rolled into one,” declared an opinion writer for the New York Times. The theme is that the New York shutdown is good for everyone: “It increasingly appears necessary that for the next eight weeks, and possibly for longer, all nonessential businesses should be closed, domestic travel restricted and the ‘shelter in place’ measures being employed by some parts of the country extended to the rest.”
The New York Times is not alone in restraining the economy for the time being. If people are “disciplined about social distancing and testing increases … the economy can open back up again probably in two months,” according to Bill Gates. Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel wrote in the New York Times that if the federal government “acts now … a strong national response may allow America to open up sooner — in June, not by Easter — and do it more safely.”
A June startup is awfully late. The economy has done more than just come to a near halt. Fortune 500 companies continue to pay employees, but the smaller elements of the economy are disassembling. The longer the wait for an economic go-ahead, the harder to put things back together. Apartment dwellers have stopped paying their rent. Mortgage lenders fearing a wave of unpaid loans want a $40 billion bailout to cover the next three months.
Democrats are living up to their reputation for exploiting a crisis for whatever unrelated bonuses they can get. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is seeking to resurrect the deduction of state and local taxes from federal tax returns. It would come in the fourth “relief” measure costing billions. And would be the biggest tax payoff ever for the top 1%. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said no to spending bill No. 4 and a tax reward the wealthy.
Trump is on the right track on the economy. Yes, he has a vested interest in a strong economy. Nate Silver said, “A bad economy makes life harder for the incumbent party.” That’s not all. It makes life harder still for the American people.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
