The latest Rasmussen tracking poll shows good news for John McCain. The Arizona maverick has chewed into Barack Obama’s eight point lead, taking out a three point chunk. Unless you failed several math classes, you’ve probably been able to deduce that Obama now has a five point lead over McCain. For the three days prior to today, Obama held an eight point lead. Today’s shrinkage suggests that Obama’s bounce for conquering Hillary has played itself out. Republican partisans who feared Obama would open up an enormous lead after officially becoming the presumptive nominee can go back to sleeping at night. So why was the bounce so small? While I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a “dead cat bounce,” it didn’t live up to the media’s expectations. Or hopes – I have it on excellent authority that all sharp objects have been removed from Newsweek’s offices. As fate would have it, I was having an email debate with a politically wise friend who expected the bounce to be much bigger. I argued that the public is much savvier to news developments than was the case in the past. While the media consensus held that the public would only consider Barack Obama the presumptive nominee when he was officially coronated as such by the august likes of Katie Couric, the public perceived the narrative way before the media made it official. Or at least the vast majority of the public did. Obama’s ultimate victory came as an anticlimax to most sentient Americans. His bounce consisted of a few Hillary dead-enders and a few people who aren’t particularly cognizant of their political surroundings. So what does this mean as we move forward? Beware of political analysts promising bounces for non-events. Next up in that category? The political conventions. Four years ago, these flaccid and little-watched political infomercials failed to significantly move the needle. (John Kerry actually lost ground after the DNC when a stunned and horrified nation got to know him better.) Yet some analysts think they’ll be formative events in the 2008 campaign. Don’t believe them.
