At first glance, this seems like just the kind of place Republican presidential candidate John McCain would easily dominate on Election Day.
Home of the world’s largest naval base, the 1,800-square-mile region also plays host to more than a dozen other military installations and is an enclave for many who have retired from the armed services.
Those military and ex-military personnel tend to favor John McCain, a Vietnam War hero who served in the Navy for 23 years.
But McCain’s favorability rating in the Hampton Roads area has been heavily diluted by a large number of African-American and young non-military voters (and even some young military voters) who are flocking to Democrat Barack Obama’s candidacy.
The confluence of these voters and four visits by Obama in the past year has put McCain on the defensive in the southeastern part of Virginia, one of three densely populated swing areas in the state that will determine whether the Old Dominion chooses a Republican president for the 11th election in a row or picks a Democrat for the first time since 1964.
“The race for Virginia is probably going to come down to what happens in Hampton Roads,” said state Del. John Cosgrove, a Republican representing Chesapeake. “The battleground really is here.”
Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod told The Examiner he expected the Illinois senator to “outperform the numbers in past elections in every region of the state,” including Hampton Roads, a classic swing district that went for George W. Bush by more than 70,000 votes in 2004 but favored Democratic nominee Al Gore by 30,000 votes in 2000.
Obama is certain to pull in support from towns such as Norfolk and Portsmouth, where black voters dominate. McCain will pick up evangelical Christians who have a strong presence in places like Virginia Beach, home to Pat Robertson’s Regent University, and who have been energized by McCain’s choice of conservative, anti-abortion Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
“Hampton Roads is kind of a mixing bowl,” said University of Richmond political scientist Daniel Palazzolo. “The reason it is a battleground is that you have this mix of conservatism and liberalism all at once. There is a fairly large concentration of African-Americans, a fairly large concentration of military and veterans, and this suburban blend of swing voters.”
The total military population, including active duty, reserve, retirees and family members, totals approximately 300,000, according to the United States Joint Forces Command. McCain is expected to win the majority of these votes, although Obama is making a play for some of them and will likely pick up support from African-Americans in the military.
In the city of Hampton, the military makes up a big part of the population, but its influence is waning as nearby Fort Monroe gradually shuts down under the government’s Base Realignment and Closure program.
David Weaver, 57, has watched the changes take place from the downtown comic book store he opened in 1979.
His customers are a mix of African-Americans who live in the city and members of the military from one of the neighboring bases.
Weaver said he’s voting for Obama. “I think we are ready for a change.”
