Early election results have turned betting markets on their heads, with odds now suggesting President Trump is the favorite to beat Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Analysts said gamblers appeared to be backing Trump after strong results in Florida but cautioned that Biden still had room to win with the Midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Even so, it marks a remarkable turnaround for Trump, who was counted out by many pundits as he struggled to head off negative assessments of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the fallout from a shuttered economy.
Shortly before 10 p.m., with the first results coming in, United Kingdom-based Betfair said Trump was now the favorite for the first time since September.
Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said: “Donald Trump is now favorite to win the election for the first time, surging by 27% on Betfair Exchange since polls closed. “In a remarkable turn of events, Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden.”
#ElectionNight UPDATE
Massive swing in the betting market, now 73-27 in @realDonaldTrump’s favour.
Follow the odds LIVE ? https://t.co/IIaHmpfqfb pic.twitter.com/8eXPWmkxHm
— Smarkets (@smarkets) November 4, 2020
A rush of money for Trump means he is now rated 4/6 to win while Biden is at 6/4.
Shortly after, US-Bookies.com reported that Trump’s odds improved from 11/10 to 2/5, giving him an implied 71% chance of winning the election. Biden’s odds worsened significantly from 8/11 to 2/1, giving him an implied 33% chance.
And the U.K.-based Smarkets is giving Trump a 65% chance, up from 39% when polls opened.
“This has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade County with a large Cuban population,” said Patrick Flynn, a political analyst at Smarkets.
