Yet another bad omen for Terry McAuliffe popped up in the eleventh hour ahead of the election on Tuesday in which Virginians will select the state’s next governor.
Virginian political website Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced on Monday the race, in which McAuliffe is facing off against GOP rival Glenn Youngkin, had been changed from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican.”
The rating shift, which was the first since March when it started issuing ratings in the race, was attributed to President Joe Biden’s “sagging approval ratings” and “numerous other problems” with his administration, including inflation, supply-chain problems, gas prices, and the Afghanistan withdrawal, editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in an online newsletter.
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“Our sense is that the race has been moving toward Youngkin, in large part because of the political environment,” they said. “McAuliffe’s Trump-centric campaign also just doesn’t seem as potent in a non-federal race with the former president no longer in the White House.”
In addition to the political environment, other advantages Youngkin has are voter enthusiasm and history. Those three factors helped get Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam elected in 2017, the newsletter noted.
Still, a Youngkin victory is not guaranteed despite polling in general swinging his direction in recent days.
One of McAuliffe’s advantages is the state’s baseline partisanship and how it can break ties in favor of the state’s “stronger party,” which for this election is the Democrats, the authors said.
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McAuliffe is a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee who first served as governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018. Governors in the state are barred from serving two consecutive terms.
Although Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which brings together a group of prognosticators at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, favors Youngkin, “a victory by either candidate remains on the table,” the newsletter said.
