Republicans are aiming for Iowa to be all red after the 2022 elections.
Rep. Cindy Axne is the only Democrat representing the Hawkeye State in Congress, along with three House Republicans and GOP Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst. Now she’s a top Republican target in a state where former President Donald Trump clobbered President Joe Biden, 53% to 45%.
Iowa was a swing state not that long ago. But Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack retired after the 2020 elections and was replaced by a Republican. And freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer lost her reelection bid.
Axne won her second term for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District last cycle, a rematch against her 2018 opponent and previous incumbent, Republican David Young. Both races were tight. In 2018, in a six-way general race, Axne won by 2 percentage points, with the Libertarian candidate taking 2% of the votes cast.
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Last cycle, in a three-way general race, she defeated Young by just over 2 percentage points, with the Libertarian candidate taking 15% of the votes cast.
Axne is a natural for Republicans to target, with the party needing only about six seats to win control of the House in 2022.
The district covers Iowa’s southwestern region, which extends from Des Moines to the Nebraska and Missouri state lines. The district has flipped between both parties since its creation in 1863 and is one of seven districts represented by a Democrat that went for Trump in the 2021 cycle.
Facing a tough reelection bid in the House, Axne is considering a Senate run in 2022. That’s something several endangered House members are doing or considering, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters during the congressional Republican retreat in Orlando on Monday.
“The number of these people that are going to come up with these very tough decisions whether they run for reelection, and I believe a lot of it’s going to happen after Thanksgiving,” he said.
Grassley, first elected to the Senate in 1980, would be a heavy favorite for reelection, but he hasn’t announced his political plans.
But as long as Axne is focused on reelection, the House Republicans’ campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as the Iowa State GOP have taken every opportunity to go after Axne. That includes accusations that she was complicit in trying to help House Speaker Nancy Pelosi “steal” a House election in Iowa from Republican lawmaker Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
In a more recent ad, the NRCC went after Axne and other vulnerable Democratic House lawmakers for “refusing to distance herself from fellow party members calling for anti-law enforcement policies like defunding the police and ending prisons,” referencing a tweet made by Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
GOP figures also criticized Axne’s vote against McCarthy’s failed censure measure of Rep. Maxine Waters, a California Democrat, for telling protesters to “get more confrontational” if Derek Chauvin, a former Minneapolis police officer, was not found guilty of charges that he murdered George Floyd, a black man who died in his custody.
“Cindy Axne was silent when Rashida Tlaib demanded an end to policing and incarceration and even voted against censuring Maxine Waters for encouraging anti-law enforcement protesters to engage in violence. Iowa voters can’t trust Cindy to stand with law enforcement and keep them safe,” NRCC spokesman Mike Berg said.
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Iowa’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, which drafts the state’s congressional map, subject to the approval by the GOP-led Legislature and governor, must still release the final lines. Axne is likely holding out hope that her district gets bluer areas from the Des Moines region, but that would mean she needs to rid her district of about 60,000 constituents for this to happen.
