Old Virginny” is dead, declared former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine in November 2008, after a Democratic presidential candidate carried the state for the first time in 44 years.
But Kaine, the current chairman of the Democratic National Committee, now faces a horde of Democrats in peril as Virginia, and the nation, reverse course this year and turn against the very same Democrats they elected two years ago, including that presidential nominee who captured a majority of Old Dominion voters, Barack Obama.
Freshman Democrats Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye were part of that 2008 Obama-inspired wave in Virginia. Both ousted incumbent Republicans by narrow margins in districts that previously favored Republicans. And both now face extraordinarily tough re-election bids in those very same districts.
The story is similar in Northern Virginia, where freshman Rep. Gerald Connolly, a Democrat who rode Obama’s coattails to victory in a previously Republican district, now faces the possibility of being replaced by the same Republican he beat in 2008, Oakton businessman Keith Fimian.
Even in southwest Virginia, longtime Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher is facing his toughest reelection yet against Republican Morgan Griffith, majority leader of the Virginia House. Boucher, who didn’t even have a challenger in 2008, has taken considerable heat for supporting a cap-and-trade energy bill that is wildly unpopular in the coal-rich region of the state. Though most polls show Boucher leading Griffith, political analysts rate the race a toss up.
“Keep an eye on some of the races that aren’t expected to be close,” said Jesse Richman, a political science professor at Old Dominion University. “There may be some surprises there.”
Perriello and Nye were long considered the most vulnerable of Virginia’s incumbent congressmen, but the two are pursuing re-election strategies so different that Richman calls them “polar opposites.”
Nye has tried to build a moderate voting record and has distanced himself from the president. Perriello, meanwhile, not only supported Obama on divisive initiatives like the economic stimulus bill and health care reform, but welcomed Obama to Charlottesville for a final rally on Friday. Perriello was the only individual House member to have Obama appear in his district.
Given the conservative contours of their districts, the two were long considered to be fighting uphill battles for re-election. But races in districts once thought safe for Democrats are now tightening — reflecting national trends.
National Democrats, for example, recently dumped more than $1 million to help Connolly in his battle with Fimian in Northern Virginia’s 11th District, though Democrats just months ago believed Connolly to be relatively safe. Television viewers have been bombarded with ads from both sides, and will likely continue to see them through Tuesday.
In tight races, each side’s ground game, its efforts to get out its voters — as well as the “enthusiasm gap” between the parties — could make all the difference in Virginia and across the country.
“Remember, a big issue in midterm elections is who shows up at the polls,” said George Mason University’s Stephen Farnsworth. “There are not angry liberals in the same way that there are angry conservatives.”
Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell seized on that theme during a Republican rally in Fairfax Sunday.
“Sleep is vastly overrated,” McDonnell said.
“You can still put up those last signs, you can call people … you can still do things that will make a difference.”
