PHILADELPHIA — Members of Pennsylvania’s Democratic convention delegation say they’re confident their state will be in the win column for Hillary Clinton in November’s presidential election. But behind their determined optimism is worry.
Donald Trump is focusing intensely on the state as he campaigns to beat Clinton, and even though every Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton in 1992 has won Pennsylvania, home-state delegates admit to harboring doubts and concede that the state is in play.
“I warn Democrats, Donald Trump is giving a message that is resonating with white, blue-collar workers who worked in factories, who worked on construction crews,” former Gov. Ed Rendell said Tuesday, adding, “We’d be naive if we didn’t understand this exists. So this state is in play.”
Since becoming presumptive nominee in May, Trump and Republicans have turned to Pennsylvania as essential to success in November.
He has made several stops in the state since then, and will be in Scranton on Wednesday. On Monday, Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus argued that the Keystone State is “ground zero” for the GOP’s chances to take back the White House.
Trump’s robust standing polls, and the volatility of the campaign, worry Democrats. But they say they will pull through in the end.
“Certainly it’s competitive,” said Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for attorney general. “I think David Plouffe a few years ago described Pennsylvania as fools gold for Republicans … I would expect Democrats will win up and down ballot this time around.
“I wouldn’t be here working as hard as I am if I thought this thing was in the bag. It’s not. I think it’s going to be competitive, and we’re all going to continue to work very hard to get our word out and ultimately put ourselves into a position to govern effectively.”
Democrats point to Clinton’s inability to bring all of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ supporters onto her side, and ponder the possibility that this will deflate turnout for her and other Democrats. Their comments came a day after Sanders delivered a rousing speech supporting Clinton as the party’s nominee.
“What I’m hoping doesn’t happen is a low voter turnout because of disappointments on each side,” said Arlanda Williams, a Clinton delegate who still believe’s she will win. “As you can see here lately, the Sanders delegates are disappointed and his supporters are disappointed. So we are going to claim the victory and hope to keep the victory, but I think you may see a low voter turnout — just apathy on both sides, not just the Democratic side.”
Republicans are going all out to capture the state’s 20 electoral votes. Trump’s focus is on blue-collar voters in Western Pennsylvania, which he hopes will turn out in large numbers and overcome his deficit with black voters in Philadelphia and white college-educated voters in the city’s surrounding counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery).
Former Sen. Rick Santorum, a Western Pennsylvania native, believes Trump could make up the difference, but notes that the nominee needs to narrow the gap in those “collar” counties. CNN polling shows that Trump trails among the college educated by 44-39 nationally. Republicans have not lost this group in a presidential election since the 1950s.
Santorum said Trump needs to broaden his message, but said Pennsylvania is promising because “we’re not a border state. We’re not a state that has been a growing state, and therefore, we haven’t attracted a lot of recent immigrants into the state.
“So demographically, it is a state that Trump can do exceptionally well in if he can hold the percentages he has in non-college educated and start picking up some of the suburban vote that, right now, he’s just not getting. But I think he can.”
