The ice is finally melting. Not the Arctic ice, although that might be melting too. I mean the frozen position critics of the global warming hysterics have been taking. They disagree with Obama’s contention that the science of climate change is settled, and prefer reading actual temperatures recorded on thermometers to print-outs of assumption-ridden models. I am no fan of complex models, having watched the best and brightest model builders mis-measure risk before the recent financial upheaval, and more recently noticed that they failed to come close to predicting the 60% fall in oil prices. Against the certitude of those who believe the globe is warming and that human activity is the cause, we should set Bjorn Lomborg’s observation that temperatures in the past 15 years have risen 0.09 degrees Fahrenheit, 90% less than an average of all models predicted. So the planet might not be warming. And yet, and yet . . . I might be wrong, suggesting a bit of prudential action that is anyhow indicated by requirements other than a desire to keep cool.
The important point is that it is a long leap from climate-change skepticism — I won’t use the inapt and offensive phrase “denial” — to opposition to putting a price on, taxing if you prefer, carbon emissions. As we approach possible changes in our arcane tax structure, ask the wrong question, and you get a useless answer. For makers of fiscal policy, the wrong question is, “Is the planet warming?” The right question: “In formulating future tax policy, does it matter whether the earth is warming?” The answer is “no”. At least not when we are working to reform a sub-optimal tax structure.
