Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly’s election to Congress sets the stage for a succession battle between a low-key veteran Democrat and a freshman dissenter, both of whom are expected to shortly announce their plan to seek the board’s top spot.
The position is larger in scope than the governor of some states, and has served as a springboard for higher federal and state offices.
Board Vice Chairwoman Sharon Bulova, who has represented the central Braddock District for two decades, and Republican Pat Herrity, who won election to the outlying Springfield District last year, are expected to face off in a February special election to replace Connolly.
To be held a mere three months after a momentous and exhausting election, turnout is expected to be abysmal, leaving both candidates to rally their most active supporters.
“You are talking about 15 to 18 percent turnout, let’s just face it,” said Sully District Supervisor Michael Frey, the other half of the board’s Republican caucus. “It’s going to be the lowest of low turnouts. It’s the middle of winter. You’re talking about the hard-core that are going to be voting.”
Connolly, who will replace the retiring 11th District Republican Rep. Tom Davis, defeated a long-shot Republican challenger Tuesday night by an 8 point margin, which is unexpectedly small for a race that many believed would be a double-digit blowout. That result could offer hope for Herrity, whose late father, Jack, served 16 years on the board between 1973 and 1988, 12 of them as chairman.
Herrity has been openly positioning himself for a shot at the chairmanship, and has quarreled with Connolly over the direction of county spending — especially the millions of dollars the board pumps into affordable housing.
Bulova, the board’s budget chairwoman, has been far quieter.
Frey expects Herrity to attack Bulova on the property tax increases passed in the last few years, and the $500 million budget shortfall looming in fiscal 2010. Bulova, he said, will seek to frame Herrity as a “slash and burn” Republican with little experience on the board. Bulova, who plans to announce her candidacy Wednesday at the Backlick Road Virginia Railway Express station, said Herrity’s inexperience makes him vulnerable, adding his frequent opposition to the board’s majority hurts his ambitions to the chairmanship.
Herrity could not be reached Wednesday.
